The first week after Easter has been dominated by a slew of partisan pledges. From tightening up on non-doms, protecting the NHS, reducing immigration to capping rail fares, we have heard it all from party leaders and their apparatchiks. On top of that we’ve had two more leadership debates within 24hrs in Scotland; there is no avoiding this election.
It has been a daily procession of policy announcements, with at least one pumped out every morning in time for the ‘Today’ programme, but seemingly forgotten by the time you sit down to watch the 10 o’clock news later that evening.
But one policy announcement that has ignited more interest than most is the renewal of Trident. Why? Simple. It’s become the SNP’s self-enforced red line in any potential negotiations with Labour.
It brings back memories of the early days of the coalition when the Lib Dems were forced to commit one of the most gargantuan policy U-turns in living memory.
Despite campaigning fiercely on abolishing university tuition fees, once part of the government and required to toe the line by their coalition partners, they did exactly the opposite.
They were tarnished in the eyes of many of the electorate, and they’ve never recovered. Forget the claims of raising the tax threshold for the poorest in society or acting as a social conscience and vital brake on those overzealous state shrinking, tax cutting Tories. The die was cast and Nick Clegg now finds himself in a vicious dogfight to retain his seat. Something unimaginable five years ago.
Are there any lessons that Nicola Sturgeon and her party should heed from the fate of the Lib Dems? If there’s one, it’s to remain flexible on policy announcements, don’t tie yourself up in knots when you don’t need to and avoid constantly flagging red lines.
The polls remain stacked in the SNP’s favour in Scotland, and it’s looking highly likely that Ed Miliband may be forced to reach out to the SNP to secure a working mandate in Westminster.
But Trident is simply off the menu for discussion with Labour. If it was a policy option for review, in the last 24 hours the Tories have gone for the jugular forcing the Labour leader to pledge his continued support for the programme.
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However, the real challenge with Ms Sturgeon’s position on Trident is symbolic rather than tactical. SNP support is at record levels and with one (if not both) eye(s) on Holyrood elections in 2016, Trident offers Nicola Sturgeon an opportunity to outmuscle the two big Westminster political parties and again inspire Scotland’s nationalist belief that it shouldn’t have to house the Britain’s nuclear deterrent if the overwhelming number of Scots want it removed.
It’s a policy which enables her to portray her party as the insurgent, fighting against the Westminster establishment and its ‘status quo’ politics.
But has she played her hand too early, and more seriously for the SNP, does it demonstrate the limit of their bargaining position?
It’s hard to believe that the former SNP first minister Alex Salmond would have been so forthright so early in the campaign. Nevertheless it’s likely he’ll be integral in any SNP/Labour negotiations, so who’s to say there might not be some flexibility in that Trident red line. In any post-election negotiations it may just turn out to be a red herring.