While the result of the European Referendum was “a significant and material” change in circumstances that would allow Nicola Sturgeon to call a second independence referendum there is no certainty that it will happen.
The SNP’s 2016 Manifesto also said that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is "clear and sustained evidence" that independence has become the preferred option of Scots. Clear and sustained evidence is thought to mean that opinion polls would show 60% support for a period of a year or so.
And while the three polls conducted shortly after the Brexit showed a bounce towards independence with 52, 53 and 54% of those polled choosing that option, the 60% is some distance away.
But the underlying factor that will affect the First Minister’s judgement will be the strength of the Scottish economy. And it continues to lag behind the rest of the UK both in unemployment and GDP growth, not to mention the ongoing decline in North Sea oil reserves. John McLaren, professor at Glasgow University’s Adam Smith Business School has warned that Scotland’s growth prospects are worse now than at any time since 2008.
The structural weakness in the Scottish economy has been accepted by SNP MSP George Kerevan. Writing in City AM Kerevan said: “However, a separate Scottish currency pegged to sterling would necessitate fiscal consolidation to assuage the foreign exchange markets. It would certainly be doable, but would require independent Scotland to cut its budget coat to fit its fiscal means”.
Translated into practice Kerevan took the view that this would mean five years of austerity, spending cuts, tax increases and the sale of Scotland’s public assets. Evidently at the end of this five year interregnum Scotland would become an “economic powerhouse”. Exactly how is not explained.
So Nicola Sturgeon will proceed with caution. Rightly she will seek to secure the best possible deal for Scotland through the UK Brexit negotiations. But she knows that a second referendum defeat would kill of independence for generations, not a legacy she would be wish to be remembered for.