Andrew Lansley CBE and Vicky Ford MEP spoke at Interel’s latest Brexit Breakfast on Monday 9th November. They shared their expert, insider analysis into the likely timings of the vote, how the campaigns are shaping up and the impact this could have on financial services.
Key points
- The Times suggested on Monday that June was the optimal date for the referendum. But, in our speakers’ view, everything would have to go right to deliver on that, with an exceptionally smooth run on the negotiations.
- September is still the most likely date for the referendum and potentially Thursday September 22 could be THE September would allow for purdah over the summer recess and is well before the French and German elections.
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The Conservatives would find it very difficult not to have had the referendum by the next Conservative Party Conference.
- What does a deal look like? David Cameron has today set out his objectives for negotiations in his letter to Donal Tusk, President of the European Council. The Government will be looking to protect access to the single market, make the EU more competitive, bolster the role of Parliament and tackle migrant abuse of the freedom of movement.
- Even if this is achieved it will still not be enough red meat for the EU out campaign.
- But the negotiation matters a great deal. Many of the electorate are still to make up their minds. It could also lead to a permanently different and improved relationship for the UK in Europe. It can deliver ‘in Europe and not run by Europe’, the aspiration of many Conservatives. It would effectively be a single market with ‘less politics’.
- In thinking about the ‘in’ and ‘out’ campaigns it’s important not to forget the politics. There are also big left/right divisions and many on the left are also not happy with the concept of an ever closer union.
- It is very hard to imagine life outside of Europe and what that would look like for the UK. The other member states would not allow a ‘pick and mix’ approach to legislation.
- Business should speak up and speak up now about their Brexit concerns. It is not a case of having to be partisan but of setting out the facts.
- The ‘in’ campaign urgently needs a more positive narrative and companies in the financial services sector can and should help to set this out.