Tom Mludzinski, Director of Political Polling at ComRes, spoke at Interel's EU Referendum Breakfast yesterday, Tuesday 14th June, and gave the latest insight from the polls. With the Referendum just 8 days away and the polls fluctuating more than ever, the campaign has entered a crucial phase.
Here are the top ten things you need to know:
1. David Cameron has an unconventional approach to referenda. This will be the third referendum he’s held in order to maintain constitutional status quo, whereas referenda are usually instruments of change. These ‘Camorendums’ capitalise on British voters’ status quo bias, which might explain his 100% success rate so far.
2. Related to this, it is for Leave to actively change peoples’ minds and persuade them to vote for change. This explains the sometimes radical arguments they deploy. Remain’s key challenge is to energise their core supporters to turn out to vote in sufficient numbers.
3. Method matters. All polling companies have to choose what weight to give to contrasting telephone and online polling, adjust for turnout and mitigate for those yet still to decide. ComRes only use telephone polling, which was slightly more accurate at the 2015 Election. We won't know which methodology will prove to be the most accurate in this Referendum until the results are in and numbers are thoroughly crunched, but ComRes’ view is that phone polling is the more likely predictor.
4. Both sides’ strategies are to play to their strengths. The Remain side have firmly won the economic argument and are showing discipline in sticking to their messaging on this. The Leave side’s renewed focus on immigration has borne fruit, and along with their other key message of sovereignty, they appear to be cutting through.
5. Political leaders matter. Even in this anti-politician period, party leaders can mobilise support for elections and referenda in a way that celebrities and businesspeople can’t, and will be crucial in securing the result. However, mainstream leaders like David Cameron have followers on both sides of the debate, so need to speak cautiously.
6. Contrary to media reports, Conservative voters are the key constituency, not Labour. Tory voters are about 50-50 split, and the most likely to change their minds, probably thanks to their divided party. Conversely, most Labour voters have made their decision to back Remain, and the portion who back Brexit often do so because of immigration and are thus unlikely to change their mind.
7. Setting the agenda is the best way of winning support. This was true with Remain’s early interventions from President Obama and Bank Governor Mark Carney, and is now true with Leave’s NHS spending and points-based immigration pledges. This publicity takes about a week to translate into attitudinal changes in the polls, so keep a sharp eye out for which side is making the weather this week.
8. Turnout is important but won’t decide the result. Conventional wisdom suggests that a low turnout benefits Leave and a high one Remain, thanks to elderly eurosceptics outvoting their Europhile children and grandchildren. This is too simplistic. There are cross-cutting cleavages in all demographic blocs, and age or gender-based allegiance is usually overstated.
9. The Conservative Party will have a hard time after June 23rd. David Cameron has already announced he will step down. This will take place in the medium term, probably in 2017 or 2018, if the country votes to Remain. Despite what he says, he is likely to step down immediately if the country votes to Leave. The next Conservative Leader will be chosen by the Conservative Party membership, who are generally to the right of the average Tory voter, and upset with Cameron and his allies for failing to play this campaign with a straight bat and plunging the Conservatives into all-out civil war.
10. A Prediction: Remain will win ‘’comfortably.’’ While the Leave campaign have enjoyed recent success, it is unlikely that they will convince enough people to vote for change. Sovereignty and immigration strongly appeal to a very active core, but in the end, people will prioritise the status quo and their immediate financial interests.
With just 8 days to go, you can stay up to date with our latest insight at interelinsight.com.