During her keynote speech at the SNP conference, Nicola Surgeon said that her party would spend the summer building support for independence. It went down well in the hall – receiving a standing ovation – and partially indicates how independence will fit into the party’s manifesto at this May’s election.
However, the statement was also an acknowledgement that independence is by no means a forgone conclusion. In September 2014, there was a strong belief that, in time, the extra 6% of the electorate needed to push independence over the line would gradually come round to the idea. This was further reinforced last May, when the SNP took 56 out of Scotland’s 59 seats at Westminster.
Last week’s GERS report blew a massive hole in the economic case for independence though, due to declining oil revenues, which show no signs of improving. And undoubtedly, it was the strong economic argument which convinced a good number to eventually vote Yes; those who, having had the figures laid out in front of them, were happy to throw caution to the wind and put their cross next to Yes.
Fast forward 18 months and these voters are probably looking at their options in an entirely different light. It’s easy to vote Yes when you’re told you’ll be no worse off – in fact, you and your family might even be better off. But when faced with a budgetary black hole in good times, similar to the UK’s at the height of the banking crisis, people’s feelings might change.
And herein lies the problem for the SNP. A base level of support for independence hovering between 35% and 40% is nothing to be sniffed at. But without the promise of oil windfalls and a better life for all, how does the SNP rebuild its case for independence?
If you are looking for an answer from me, then I’m sorry to disappoint you, but I don’t have it. One thing is clear though. The SNP will be elected with an increased majority in May, giving them the flexibility to hold another referendum at a time of their choosing right up until 2021. And during this time, the economic and political sands will continue to shift, especially after this year’s EU referendum. But is five years enough time for the SNP to build the required arguments and put them to the Scottish people? Or will Nicola Surgeon have to wave so long and farewell to the chance of bringing independence to Scotland?