For most observers, the campaign for the 2016 Scottish Parliamentary elections were the least interesting since devolution - the delivery of major new powers still failed to ignite the contest, which although six weeks long taught us little we didn’t already know. But the result, well, that was different, and provided the most astonishing of outcomes. As MSPs of all persuasions were sworn in this week, they will all have plenty to think about as they face up to challenges ahead.
Yes, Nicola Sturgeon has her much longed-for personal mandate, but the failure to achieve another majority government, however narrowly, will be a significant disappointment and no small political challenge to overcome. However, nationalist strategists will be reflecting very positively on a Scottish political context that now pitches the SNP into a head to head battle with the Tories. That is an environment they will relish. That is an enticing prospect for a party that wants to self-define itself as the antidote to conservatism.
Conservatives used this week to recover their composure from the shock of their success, and will relish their new position as lead opposition party. The challenge now will be to see whether a Scottish political environment still fractured by the constitution can provide a long term base for conservative success, rather than a short-term framework for astoundingly tactical success. No doubt, Ruth Davidson will make a fascinating adversary for the First Minister at FMQs, but will her tone and message prove able to retain the tactical votes of those unionists who responded to her plea that you didn’t need to be a Tory to vote Conservative?
And with lively FMQ contests ahead, how striking that the new Presiding Officer should make his election by seeking a more considered tone at question time. Good luck with that, Ken. In the real world, most of us are looking forward to some fireworks.
Meantime, on the Labour MSP office floor, hushed watercooler conversations will alternate between reflecting on the appalling hole they have dug for themselves, and reassuring worried staffers that “at least we’ve now reached the bottom, the only way is up from here.” As someone who has been party to those conversations over many elections, I’d gently suggest that if you seek to persuade yourself that the only way is up, then you can be absolutely sure that further falls lie ahead. As Kezia took her oath, you could almost see in her eyes a formal recognition that the journey to recovery for her Party will almost certainly outlast her leadership.
Round the fringes, the Lib Dems, whilst buoyed by a very few personal successes, will now fully appreciate the chasm that now divides them from a sustainable share of the vote and a meaningful role in the Parliament, with the latter seemingly now reserved for a Green group that, whilst tripled in size, will be constantly reflecting on what might have been.
The fifth Scottish Parliament is set to make a fascinating backdrop to political life for the next five years. Whilst you get the sense that the devolution journey is not yet finished, there is no doubt that the addition of meaningful tax powers will provide a context that will allow future stars to flourish, whilst exposing those less able or less prepared to convince us. As MSPs queued to take their oath, one suspects that most will be contemplating the rollercoaster years ahead, after the uninspiring weeks before.