The Institute for Fiscal Studies, doyennes of the think-tank scene, have offered their analysis of the main party manifestos. It is not complimentary, with IFS Director Paul Johnson pouring scorn on the parties’ claims that the manifestos were fully costed. The main thrust of the report is that the major parties have not been honest with the electorate over how they plan to fund spending commitments, engaging in what has been described as a “conspiracy of silence”.
The Prime Minister was in Edinburgh to launch the Scottish Tory manifesto earlier today, where he made another claim which may not stand up to scrutiny – that the Tories are the only party who could beat the SNP. Nevertheless, Scotland could be a rare bright spot for the Conservatives if they hold onto seats in the Borders and the Northeast.
However, the dominant issue facing the Conservatives is the rumbling scandal around the Downing Street betting syndicate. As with D-Day, yet another fiasco of their own making has consolidated the perception that the party is inherently dysfunctional. Even when Nigel Farage stokes controversy with his comments on Ukraine, the Conservative focus seems to be on firefighting this latest misstep.
Labour have also spent the past few days having to deal with an issue which is inherently uncomfortable for the leadership. After JK Rowling’s broadside about the party’s approach to gender issues, it is being reported that Labour will make it easier for people to legally transition by removing the need for them to prove they have lived as their preferred gender for two years. With 10 days to go before the election, one suspects Starmer et al would rather be talking about something other than this.
Expect this and the betting scandal to come up this evening as Sun Political Editor Harry Cole interviews both Sunak and Starmer. The latest Home Office statistics – which have revealed that small boat arrivals have hit a new record in the first six months of this year – will also likely get an airing by Cole, and by Reform too.
Insights of the day
The Sunday papers were full of pieces about Keir Starmer the man, most notably this by Josh Glancy in The Sunday Times. Alongside it was a backgrounder on Sue Gray, Starmer’s éminence grise. A helpful primer on those who are set to be in charge for the next five years.
As polling increasingly suggests that once true-blue Conservative heartlands are set to turn a shade of Lib Dem yellow, the FT takes a deep dive into how the party of Margaret Thatcher lost its grip over England's prosperous south.
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