SNP launches manifesto
A Scottish National Party (SNP) Westminster manifesto is always a strange, half-hearted affair. This document should therefore be primarily viewed as a trial run for the messaging and policies which will be put forward at the Holyrood election in 2026.
Reading the manifesto, the nationalist panic about a resurgent Scottish Labour is threaded throughout.
Building on the campaign messaging that a Labour government would lead to some form of crypto-austerity, the SNP has gone heavy on the need for tax rises to pay for public services and lots of nudge, nudge, wink, wink stuff around Labour’s alleged intent to privatise large swathes of the NHS.
The question is whether yet another banging of the “Westminster = bad” drum will work when (a) it is Labour, not the Tories who are likely to win and (b) it is the SNP who are responsible for the public services which increasing numbers of Scots are disillusioned with.
That old refrain worked in a different electoral landscape before it became clogged with accusations about motorhomes, ill-fated gender reforms and expensive, botched deposit return schemes. It is John Swinney’s misfortune that he will be picking up the tab for the strategic missteps of both Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf.
On the party’s sole reason for existence – the separation of Scotland from the rest of the UK – this manifesto goes through the motions. John Swinney said that a strong SNP performance would be a “mandate” to enter negotiations with the UK government.
Not only has that got short shrift from Labour and Conservatives alike, but increasingly from nationalists. After years of being marched up to the top of the hill by Nicola Sturgeon, many people who want to see an independent Scotland simply do not believe that the SNP can do it.
This manifesto is unlikely to alter the combination of apathy and anger with the SNP, which is likely to lead to an electoral reverse on July 4th. Indeed, recent Savanta polling ahead of the general election put Scottish Labour at 37% of the vote to the SNP’s 33%, marking a turn against Scotland’s governing party not dissimilar to the uproar that the Tories are facing.
Rishi Sunak quizzed on LBC
It was the Prime Minister’s turn to take calls from LBC listeners this morning. Rishi Sunak faced tough questioning on housing, young peoples’ prospects, and party donations.
Sunak was pressed on why money donated by businessman Frank Hester would not be returned despite his racist comments directed towards Diane Abbott. The Prime Minister said that the comments were “wrong and unacceptable” but that “a society where forgiveness is something we can come together on is important".
As ever, Tory internal politics fought to make their way into the questions, as Sunak refused to rule out Nigel Farage joining the Conservative Party post-election, and avoided condemning Liz Truss’ time in office. He did, however, commit to a full term in his constituency of Richmond and Northallerton if he loses the election for the Conservatives, fending off suggestions that he’s looking forward to a Californian summer...
The problem the Tories continue to face is the widespread belief that they won’t deliver on their policies if re-elected. Pushed on housing reform and why they hadn’t delivered on their promise to ban no-fault evictions, Sunak laid the blame at covid’s door, an excuse which feels increasingly worn.
The failure to deliver was hammered home by Figen Murray, mother of Martyn Hett who was killed in the Manchester bombing, who asked Sunak why he told her the law named after her son would be delivered before summer recess… the day he called a general election. Sunak’s response that he wants to “make sure it works” will be unlikely to comfort Martyn’s mother.
Also looking increasingly tired was Sunak himself. His answers were lacklustre, his voice was monotone, and he spent most of the Q&A looking down glumly. A general election campaign is harsh on any individual; but when you’re getting battered in the polls from all sides it makes the campaign all the more difficult.
Labour candidate suspended over pro-Russia social media posts
The Scottish Labour candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East has been suspended by the party after sharing Russian state media articles saying that the Novichok used in the Salisbury poisoning was “never produced in Russia, but was in service in the US, UK, and other NATO states”.
Whilst always difficult to remove a candidate (as proven during the Rochdale by-election when Labour had to remove their candidate over his support of antisemitic conspiracies), Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves took the opportunity to emphasise Labour’s transformation since 2019, saying “We’re not going to stand by people who are sharing pro-Russian sentiment – that is not Labour values and that’s why he was quickly suspended from the Labour Party”.
Reeve’s bravado does not hide the fact that Labour continues to have difficulties over its candidates. Keir Starmer has undoubtedly changed the Labour Party, although it appears that not all in the party have changed with it.
Just Stop Oil should… Just Stop
A rare moment of political consensus arose today after Just Stop Oil vandalised Stonehenge with orange paint. Both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak condemned the group in no uncertain terms, though Conservative social media highlighted the fact that one of Labour’s donors has also financially supported the campaign group.
Moments of the day
The Conservative’s official account on X drew widespread criticism today for a post depicting Keir Starmer alongside Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong-Un with the caption “They’re watching”.
Former 2024 Conservative hopeful Iain Dale slammed his party’s decision to draw comparisons with the Labour leader and the controversial trio, saying “Utterly disgraceful. Be very ashamed”.
Poll watch
Savanta’s most recent poll for the Daily Telegraph has put Labour’s lead over the Conservatives at 19%, with the parties garnering 40% and 21% of the vote respectively. Reform sits at 14% whilst the Lib Dems and Greens have 11% and 4% each.
Savanta has also found that voters believe a Labour government is more likely than a Conservative one to put up taxes. 60% of voters think that Rachel Reeves will raise capital gains tax, whilst just 44% think Jeremy Hunt will.
Keir Starmer remains the preferred candidate for Prime Minister, with 41% to Rishi Sunak’s 21% according to a poll by YouGov. The Labour leader also beats Nigel Farage, by 50% to 25%.
The EUROs rival the general election for most seen news story in a poll by YouGov, with 16% of the public saying they had seen stories from the campaign the most and 12% saying they had seen coverage of the EUROs more often.
A new poll from Survation reveals Nigel Farage is most likely to be the next MP for Clacton, polling at 42%. His closest contenders are the Conservatives at 27%, dropping a monumental 45 points since 2019.
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