Reform unveils its 'contract' with British voters
Today, Nigel Farage launched Reform UK’s ‘contract’ – not a manifesto, as manifestos “keep making the same promises and no one believes a word of what they say” - in Merthyr Tydfil in South Wales.
Amongst other pledges, Reform has promised to:
- Freeze non-essential immigration.
- Slash government waste, saving £50 billion a year, e.g. by halving the amount of foreign aid.
- Raise the level at which people start paying tax to £20,000 per year (from £12,570)
- Abolish stamp duty and inheritance tax for all estates under £2 million.
- Cut NHS waiting lists to zero in two years. Patients would receive a voucher for fully-funded private treatment if they cannot see their GP within three days.
- Increase defence spending to 3% of GDP.
The Times said that Nigel Farage isn’t looking for “realistic” policy costings, but instead is throwing “voters pure red meat in the form of tax cuts that eclipse anything offered by the Tories.”
Farage admitted that Reform would have preferred an autumn election, saying they are working “very fast to catch up.” The contract is marked with the caveats that it is “issued as a working draft” and “welcomes comments, challenges and queries.”
Conservative attack lines
With 17 days until polling day, and with Conservative projections remaining as dismal as they were the day that Rishi Sunak called the election, Cabinet Ministers are urging CCHQ and the PM to change tact.
The Tories are aware that election victory is near impossible and today we saw Defence Secretary Grant Shapps publicly state on Times Radio that it was an “unlikely outcome”. Against this backdrop, Sunak is being encouraged to prioritise ‘damage limitation.’
Backed by YouGov polling that shows that 87% of Conservative voters think that a Labour majority would be ‘bad for the country,’ the Tory party machine is seeking to stoke fears about a Labour ‘supermajority.”
In that vein, the Telegraph splashed on Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho’s warning that Labour’s ban on new North Sea oil and gas will create a £4.5 billion black hole in the public finance – one that will have to be filled by higher taxes.
Meanwhile, the Times reported that Ministers have encouraged the PM to go for Starmer’s “jugular”, on three fronts. First, Starmer’s historic support for Jeremy Corbyn. Second, his backing for an EU referendum, as it gives rise to claims that Starmer would undo Brexit. And third, his career as a human rights lawyer.
If Politico’s analysis of the Conservative HQ’s digital ads spending is anything to go by – with less than 10% of Conservative ads on Meta focused on their own merits – we should expect plenty more fierce attack lines over the next two and a half weeks.
Reeves plans for government
Today, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves hosted a breakfast meeting of her ‘shadow’ British Infrastructure Council to discuss her plans for government, with some big names in the UK finance sector in attendance - including the CEOs of Lloyds, M&G, Santander and top execs from Blackrock, CDPQ and others.
The move has been labelled by BBC Economics Editor Faisal Islam as “quite a statement” given we are still a fortnight out from the general election.
The meeting comes as Reeves reassured the City that Labour would focus on increasing UK output rather than “fiddling around with tax rates.”
Reeves has sworn to cap tax increases at the £8.6 billion we already know of, instead saying she was ready to make “tough policy decisions” to drive growth, for example by reforming the planning system or seeking a better Brexit deal.
Reeves also said she would not reevaluate council tax bands; nor implement austerity in department spending reviews, while endorsing many of chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ‘Mansion House’ reforms – which aim to redirect billions of pension savings into higher-growth UK companies.
In fact such is the reticence to break with some of her opposite numbers’ policies, that commentators have begun to label the continuity as “Heevsian economics”, much to Labour officials dismay.
Insights of the day
Andrew Rawnsley noted in the Observer over the weekend that despite Labour’s stonking poll-lead, there are “two worms of unease wriggling in Labour’s guts. One is that right-wing unease about a Labour mega-majority may “so alarm [these] voters that they pinch their noses and rally to the Tories.”
Second, there is an “enthusiasm deficit” which will mean that victory is tainted by a depressed turnout. Labour insiders are suggesting some sort of ‘campaign lift’ to keep spirits high in the final days of the election campaign.
The pro-UK/EU campaign group Best for Britain unveiled its tactical voting recommendations on how to inflict Tory losses and reduce the chances of Reform candidates making it to the Commons. Where the incumbent non-Conservative/ Reform MP is polling at over 15% ahead of any other party, Best of Britain recommend that punters “vote with [their] heart” as the seat is safe and they “can vote for the party [they] want to.”
Poll watch
With today heralding the launch of Reform’s social contract, it’s worth noting that no other polls have so far replicated Reform edging past the Conservatives, as we saw in that YouGov poll from last week. Savanta puts the Tories on 21% to Reform’s 15%, while POLITICO’s Poll of Poll has the Tories on 21% and Reform on 15%.
Separately, new research from Savanta show the public feel more positively towards Rishi Sunak's party because of set piece policies such as abolishing stamp duty for first time buyers (40% net positively), promising to deliver 1.6 million new homes (33% net positively) and cutting NI a further 2p (25% net positively).
However, Savanta’s findings also suggest the limited impact of the Conservatives flurry of new policy ideas, with the public more likely than not to say they don't trust the Conservatives to deliver on every one of proposed ideas:
- Promising to deliver 1.6 million new homes over the next five years (Trust to deliver 29%, Not trust to deliver 67%)
- Abolishing stamp duty for first time buyers on homes with a value of up to £425,000 (Trust 41%, Not trust 54%)
- Cutting employee National Insurance by a further 2p (Trust 47%, Not trust 50%)
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