Reform campaign falters
Following Nigel Farage’s announcement that he was standing in Clacton, Reform UK would have been forgiven for thinking they were in dreamland with subsequent polls placing them above the Conservatives in national vote share. However, as election day draws closer, the Reform campaign is reeling after a week and a half of missteps and mishaps.
First, there was Nigel Farage’s comments on Vladimir Putin, where he alleged responsibility lay with NATO for Russia’s illegal war on Ukraine.
Then came a Channel 4 expose documenting racist and offensive comments by prospective parliamentary candidates and aides close to Farage.
Following this, Liam Booth-Isherwood, the Reform candidate for Erewash denounced his party and urged voters to back his Conservative rival.
Now, Georgie David, the Reform candidate for West Ham and Beckton, has suspended her campaign, defecting to the Conservatives because she believes the “vast majority” of the candidates put forward by the party to be “racist, misogynistic and bigoted”.
Not a good week for Reform.
Come on home
While the West Ham and Beckton result can be considered a foregone conclusion - Labour has dominated this neck of the woods for decades – the Reform candidate’s defection may convince disaffected conservative voters flirting with the prospect of voting Reform to return home.
Rishi Sunak will spend his final few days on the trail courting this bloc of voters in his bid to avert a historic loss for the Conservatives at the polls.
This evening, Sunak will point out that “If just 130,000 people switch their vote and lend us their support, we can deny Starmer that supermajority”, with analysis of the YouGov’s MRP poll suggesting there are 182,000 Reform voters in 73 constituencies whose votes could mean a Conservative win, preventing a Blair style Labour landslide.
Change is coming
Fresh off endorsements from The Sunday Times and Financial Times, Starmer sat down with Steve Swinford, Editor of The Times, to make his case his case to the electorate.
Starmer was adamant that a Labour supermajority “means we can roll up our sleeves and get on with the change we need”, making the difficult changes required to boost the economy.
He voiced full confidence in his growth plan, unlocked by major planning reforms and overhauling skills, pushing back on the narrative advanced by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and others that spending cuts or tax rises would be required given the current state of public finances.
Challenged on the fact that his net favourability (-20) would be a record low for an incoming Prime Minister, Starmer was defiant that he had given the Labour Party a “clarity of discipline and focus and seriousness”, making the point that his legacy would be based on his actions as Prime Minister, not on his current standing.
Insights of the day
According to the Financial Times, since the 2019 General Election Sir Keir Starmer has accepted £76,000 worth of freebies from UK donors, more than any other MP. While the Conservatives will be quick to point out the hypocrisy of Starmer regularly invoking accusations of sleaze against the government, some may argue there are few more tasteful experiences than seeing Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal play.
The Times reports on the battle for the affluent Scottish bellwether of East Renfrewshire, where Scottish Labour’s revival is clear to see as it seeks victory in a seat it has not held since 2010 and has switched between the SNP and Conservatives for the past three elections.
Election tips
Tomorrow morning the Conservatives will publish a letter from 150 small business-owners claiming they will be worse off under a Labour government.
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