With a clear but far from robust lead in the polls, Labour has made a solid start to the year, but the party will be keen to put some safe distance between the Conservatives and themselves. This week, Keir Starmer is touring the North and the West Midlands to do just that, by re-connecting with voters that abandoned Labour and attempting to show that he is a prime minister in waiting.
While elections tend to be lost by the incumbent, rather than won by the challenger, it’s clear that simple ideas, clever rhetoric and repetitive messaging such as the Tories’ ubiquitous ‘Get Brexit Done’ do play a crucial role in shifting public opinion.
It is often the case that by the time those insiders, civil servants and journalists who make up the so-called ‘Westminster bubble’ are mind-numbingly bored of a political slogan, it may have just about ‘cut through’ with the casual listener.
As we move further into the election cycle, some of Labour’s messages are beginning to feel repetitive and that means their priorities are being distilled. Here are the five things you can expect to hear from the Opposition over the next year…
A Keir advantage on crime
Labour has promoted Keir Starmer’s former position as Director of Public Prosecutions to burnish his, and the party’s crime-busting, credentials. Under his leadership, they insist, Labour would stand up for victims and tackle anti-social behaviour to ensure communities are safe. In his speech outlining Labour’s ‘contract to the British people’, Starmer said security is a matter of social justice.
Despite figures showing the Conservatives have slashed police numbers and overseen an increase in reported crime, the Tories still generally impress voters on issues like security and crime. This week, during his tour of the North and the West Midlands, Kier Starmer accused the Tories of being ‘soft on crime and soft on the causes of crime’, playing on Tony Blair’s previous slogan that Labour would be ‘tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime’.
By drafting into the shadow cabinet the formidable Yvette Cooper, an experienced Home Affairs Select Committee Chair, Keir Starmer seems determined to underline that the security of our streets and homes is a key strategic priority for Labour.
With the Tories themselves facing a criminal investigation, a Labour Party that’s tough on crime could be very tough on the Tories.
Counting the cost
Labour has been talking about a ‘cost of living crisis’ for the last six months and you can expect that message to stick around. With the energy price cap soon to rise by a hefty 50% thanks to the soaring cost of wholesale gas prices globally, the cut to the Universal Credit uplift, and with more tax hikes on the way, the cost of living should reach crunch point around April.
Labour has attempted to press home the argument that it is the Conservatives’ choice to raise taxes and cut Universal Credit, alongside their long-term failure to diversify the country’s energy network, and all this means hard-working families are going to be hit hard in their pockets.
Meanwhile, the Opposition has also laid out its own plans for a windfall tax on oil and gas company profits: cutting VAT on energy bills to support families and businesses. This, they insist, is the right way to help the British people through the crisis.
Anticipating the financial pain likely to be felt by families in the coming months – including in key marginal seats – Labour is likely to turn up the heat on the ‘cost of living’ rhetoric.
Taking care of business
Under Keir Starmer’s leadership, Labour is keen to restore its economic credibility, exploiting the Conservatives’ weakening relationship with industry during the Brexit transition period and Covid crisis, to seize their vacated ground and become the ‘Party of Business’.
It is no accident that Starmer’s set-piece speeches have been made at business group conferences. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves has declared that Labour is now ‘the pro-business Party’, and the Shadow Cabinet has carried out a charm offensive with British companies. In addition, there has been repeated messages around economic competence, prosperity and the need to stem the Conservatives’ financial waste.
Public scepticism about Labour’s ability to handle the country’s finances runs deep, a fact borne out consistently by opinion polls and focus groups over the last decade or so. Whether this is fair or not, it is actually something of a triumph for Tory public relations, with George Osborne’s narrative pinning the blame for a global recession on Labour via repetitive messaging and clever analogies (‘they failed to fix the roof while the sun was shining’) having become entrenched and difficult for the Opposition to shake off.
Labour’s reputation on the economy is a bruise that the Conservatives will attempt to press repeatedly in any election campaign. But there is evidence that Labour’s pro-business messaging is working – reflected by both the polls and by warm words in newspapers such as the Daily Telegraph, which concluded that the Shadow Chancellor is ‘starting to mend fences and win influence in the City’.
Green is the colour
At last September’s Labour Party conference, Rachel Reeves pledged to be the first ‘Green Chancellor’, unveiling a huge £28bn green stimulus to both tackle the climate emergency and support British industries and jobs. In an attempt to highlight Labour’s economic credibility and climate ambition side by side, she made clear that she believes investing in climate action and green jobs is not only morally right but also the fiscally responsible thing to do.
She reiterated in her recent ‘Five-point plan for a stronger economy’ that the same climate investment pledge would ensure the jobs and industries of the future are based in the UK.
Meanwhile Ed Miliband, as Shadow Climate Change and Net Zero Secretary, remains a respected voice on climate policy, declaring Labour is the Party of ‘green and red together’. He has made clear that he believes the next election should be focussed on climate.
With the UK already struggling to meet its net zero targets, the world significantly off track on its aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, and green activists representing a vital chunk of the Labour Party’s voting coalition, we can expect climate action to figure prominently in Labour’s messaging this year.
One rule for them
Against the troubled back-drop of ‘partygate’ and a fractious Conservative Party, we can expect Labour to double down on their ‘one rule for them’ messaging in order to capitalise on growing mistrust of the Government. Just this week, Keir Starmer made a speech on trust in politics, emphasising “concrete commitment about decency and standards in public life”.
It remains to be seen exactly how outraged the public is about cheese and wine parties, and Labour’s painstaking attempts to paint the Conservatives as the party of “sleaze” seem to have been abandoned. However, polling does show that the ‘one rule for them’ slogan cuts through.
By repeatedly using words like honesty, integrity, decency and seriousness when describing Keir Starmer, Labour is making a clear attempt to differentiate their leader from the Prime Minister. But while Boris Johnson’s reputation for being liberal with the truth is seen by many as an inherent part of his character, it remains to be seen whether this will be a fruitful avenue for Labour in the long-term.