Two week ago Theresa May was contending with the threat of mass cabinet resignations, the seemingly impending threat of a no confidence vote and the almost certain fact that her Brexit deal would fail to pass through parliament. By contrast, last week at least provided the prime minister with some relative political calm. One week on from the Brexit deal and Teflon Theresa has survived yet again, but is she and her deal now on firmer ground, or is this just a stay of execution?
Despite the DUP causing a stir with some protest votes in the house, the prime minister has managed to secure agreement with the EU on the draft political declaration outlining the future relationship post Brexit. With the 48 no confidence letters that Jacob-Rees Mogg and backbench conservative colleagues have been working to achieve failing to materialise and the PM gaining some personal support in the polls, it is fair to say that last week was a better week for Theresa May.
The battle for business
The week began with both May and Corbyn seeking to gain the support of British business for their respective Brexit positions, with both leaders addressing the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) on Monday.
The PM was up first, and while businesses are glad that her plan reduces the prospect of a no- deal Brexit, concerns remained over the future of immigration. May got herself into hot water with her comments that her Brexit deal would stop EU nationals being able to "jump the queue" ahead of skilled non-EU migrants seeking to work in Britain. Whilst this sentiment may be popular in some parts of the country, it did not go down well at the CBI where many businesses see free movement as being essential.
Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand, who was hardly in his natural habitat at a conference for captains of industry, attempted to bring his audience on side. The Labour leader sought to make the case for what he describes as "Labour's sensible jobs-first Brexit plan", whilst simultaneously playing to the crowd in voicing opposition to Theresa May's immigration plans. The CBI however was less charitable in its response, criticising Labour for not engaging constructively with the government's Brexit plan. It is safe to say however that Corbyn will not lose sleep over a negative CBI reception, and businesses are not alone in being baffled by his Brexit policy.
Coalition of chaos
The DUP threw the confidence and supply agreement into doubt by voting in favour of a Labour amendment to the Budget on Monday and abstaining on other finance votes throughout the week. Their motive - to protest against the Northern Irish backstop arrangement in the withdrawal agreement, claiming that it would see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK (which it would). If the DUP chooses to abstain from the final vote on the Finance Bill continue, it would likely presage the fall of the government. No 10, in response, has been emphasising that the withdrawal agreement contains another important contingency measure, the extension to the transition period, which make the likelihood of the backstop being triggered less likely.
Round two with the EU
Following the publication of the withdrawal agreement last week, Thursday saw the draft political declaration make the headlines. Much of the wording though remained non-committal on a number of key topics, instead using phrases such as "a balance of rights and obligations" to sum up the future relationship between the UK and EU.
May did secure a victory however, in that the end of free movement of people was explicitly mentioned within the text. Also, the text included an "aspiration" to use as yet not invented technology to ensure that the controversial Northern Ireland backstop that angered the DUP so much would not have to be used.
These victories however failed to unite parliament around her plan. In the Commons, former Tory leader and brexiteer (and the last Conservative leader to be ousted by the party) Iain Duncan Smith, was not satisfied with the technology compromise, and once again committed to vote against the deal unless the backstop was removed entirely.
Corbyn unsurprisingly was also not supportive of the deal, brandishing it a "testament to the failure of the Tories' bungled negotiations" and "the worst of all worlds". Whilst many had speculated that some Labour MPs would eventually back the deal as a way to avoid the prospect of no deal at all, this seems increasingly unlikely.
So whilst last week proved to be less chaotic than the previous, the stage is still set for an almighty showdown in the Commons when the 'meaningful vote' takes place in December. With the numbers currently not stacking up in favour of the deal, the country faces yet more political uncertainty where all options are on the table, and it may well prove to be that last week was the calm between two political storms.
Sarah Jones, managing director, public affairs practice