We’re a whole month into 2021, but so far, it feels like nothing has changed. Lockdown rages on and both the political and media agendas are still dominated by two things – Brexit and Covid-19.
Although January felt a bit like Groundhog Day, I truly believe there is lots in store for the year ahead, particularly in the political realm. Here are five trend predictions for 2021:
Finally the year of the environment?
One of the few benefits of Covid-19 has been the significant reduction in pollution. Who could forget the striking images of the Venice canal, so clear you could see right to the bottom, whilst Delhi reportedly enjoyed the clearest skies in decades. Predictions are that 2021 will be seen as a critical year for climate change. With the Government’s landmark Environment Bill expected to return to Parliament in the middle of the year and COP26 on the horizon, environmental policymakers will be excited about what 2021 has to hold.
Scottish Independence rears its head once again?
It remains unclear whether May’s local elections will go ahead. However, if they do, it remains to be seen how the UK Government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic will impact the Tories at the ballot box. With 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament to be elected, another sizeable majority for the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon could see the case for independence and a second referendum become even more prominent. Given Scotland’s newfound position outside of the European Union, a Europhilic electorate may choose to forge its own path.
Brexit? Italexit? Frexit?
We thought we’d escaped Brexit…but since the UK has left the European Union, debate has continued to rumble on about its eventual impact on critical sectors such as fishing and haulage. However, the EU’s objectively poor handling of the AstraZeneca dispute may have sparked fresh fears in Brussels that other member states could follow the UK out of the exit door.
The COVID-19 response is finally judged
It would be a fair assumption to suggest that the Government has been roundly criticized for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. The highest death toll per million is a grim achievement, yet Downing Street’s efforts in procuring and rolling out the vaccine up to now have rightly been heralded as world-leading and dynamic. Will the latter be enough to save Johnson’s premiership and ensure he is in power until 2024 at the earliest? Fatigue may be a factor and Keir Starmer will be waiting in the wings to fight an election, as it’s argued the Labour Party now has the best shot at Government since 2015.
Time for Tax
The Chancellor has made no bones about the Government’s intention to plug the £400bn black hole caused by the pandemic by tax hikes. Whilst it totally opposes everything the Conservative Party stands for, it may be seen as a more appealing alternative than a second period of austerity in a single decade. Fuel duty increases look inevitable, whilst an increase in Capital Gains and Corporate Tax look like an option for the Chancellor, allowing the Tories to keep their manifesto pledge of not increasing VAT, NI or Inheritance Tax.
by Hamish Campbell-Shore, Public Affairs Account Executive at The PHA Group