As general election antics unfold, our UK Public Affairs team will be analysing the major parties’ campaign strategies in our Who’s Top Who’s Not series.
Top: Nigel Farage
Thought you’d seen the last of the former Brexit party leader turned I’m a celeb star? Well, think again! The new Reform UK leader has thrown a grenade into this election campaign and, it’s safe to say, has sent the Conservatives into full-blown panic mode.
In case you missed it, Farage made a sensational comeback on Monday, announcing he would take over the leadership of Reform and stand for election in Clacton, a former UKIP stronghold. Despite a Maccies milkshake to the face, Nige will no doubt be popping champagne corks as YouGov’s latest poll puts Reform UK just two points behind the Tories. Tory ex-MP Nadine Dorries claims Reform will overtake the Tories by Saturday night, and Farage gleefully warns this is “just the start.”
It goes without saying that Farage is Sunak’s worst nightmare – and the combo of Farage and Reform UK is more frightening to the Tories’ than an air-borne banana milkshake.
YouGov's latest survey shows 21 percent of 2019 Conservative voters are now backing Reform, compared to just 3 percent of Labour voters. Sunak and his team will need to do everything in their power to hold on to their fast-depleting supporter base. Keeping Zac Goldsmith off the telly would be a good start?
Middle: Keir Starmer
As the dust settles from the centrist-dad showdown (otherwise known as Tuesday’s ITV Leaders debate), it's tough to call a clear winner between the two leaders. YouGov certainly tried, with its snap poll of 1,657 live viewers showing that 51 percent believed Sunak won, compared to Starmer’s 49 percent.
Whilst it was an uneventful debate, any viewer is now certainly clear that the prime minister had a plan to hammer the Tory line on tax, and Starmer’s slow response let him do just that.
Starmer arguably had an easier task on paper. He entered the studio buoyed by a stunning Survation MRP poll predicting a record majority of 324 seats, making it seem inevitable he'd be prime minister by July 5. All he had to do was avoid a misstep, right?
But while Starmer the Labour leader won several rounds of applause during the hour-long debate, the Tories were thrilled by his delayed response to Sunak’s claims that a Labour government would hike taxes by £2,000 for UK households. Even some Labour aides were frustrated, saying, “He did well, but I wish he’d gone harder on the tax attack.”
Since then, Labour has been on damage control, scrambling to counter Sunak’s tax claims. This included a 10:41 p.m. press release calling the £2,000 figure “made-up” and pointing out 11 mistakes in the costings. Even Newsnight’s Victoria Derbyshire chimed in, with Labour quickly pushing her clip on social media.
But is this all too little, too late? With the debate peaking at 1.4 million viewers, the prime time to debunk the Conservative claim was during the heat of the debate. The post-debate fallout feels a bit after the fact, leaving some in Labour circles bewildered by how long it took Starmer to counter Sunak’s tax attack.
All that being said, the main election dynamics remain unchanged: the Tories are trailing behind Labour in the polls and, as things stand, are on course for a historic defeat.
Not: Vaughan Gething
After just 78 days as First Minister, Vaughan Gething has lost a vote of confidence in the Senedd, passing by 29 votes to 27.
Gething has been under fire for a £200,000 campaign donation from a convicted polluter, despite insisting all donations were by the book. It also emerged he told colleagues during the pandemic that he was deleting messages to avoid FOI scrutiny.
Welsh Labour is usually a relatively respected machine, with Wales as a Labour stronghold and politicians presenting a united front despite internal conflicts. But the cracks are Geth-ing beyond repair (sorry). Former deputy minister Lee Waters first broke ranks, expressing shock over the donation source. Others have since voiced they wouldn’t have accepted it.
Gething and his allies argue that losing a confidence vote in the Welsh legislature isn’t crucial, but wiser heads see his position as increasingly shaky.
Regardless, the situation has provided Tories with ammunition to attack Labour-run Wales, especially its criticised NHS. This may also have knock-on implications for Labour in the UK election. Gething might not have resigned yet, but his fate seems sealed. At least he lasted longer than a lettuce…