Polling experts did not expect massive upheaval in the balance of power ahead of the 2024 European elections. While the results of the election were in line with their predictions, some of the results have had noticeable impacts on domestic politics in several EU member states.
The anticipated surge of the far-right has materialised, mainly due to the extraordinary breakthrough of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in France, but to a lesser extent than expected. The primary contingents of the far-right are held by a few Member States: Germany with the rise of the AfD, Italy with its clear approval of Giorgia Meloni's leadership, and Austria with the breakthrough of the FPÖ.
Given the divergence between national parties on essential issues like Ukraine, NATO and sovereignty, it seems highly improbable that all these forces will agree to unite into a single group, even if it would become the leading political force in the European Parliament.
The equally predictable retention of the pro-European "nucleus", composed of the conservative and liberal right of the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) - representing the historical core of the European Parliament - has been confirmed. While they may ensure the Parliament’s relative stability, significant disagreements at the national level should not be underestimated as they could substantially impact the climate within Parliament.
This configuration of the two main groups is likely to result in more pronounced divides and less reconcilable positions between an EPP predominantly controlled by deputies from northern and eastern Europe, and an S&D more representative of southern Member States.
The most unexpected development, leading to a clear gain in seats for the far-right, is the spectacular decline of two pro-European parties: the liberals of Renew and the Greens.
Their weak performances in France, combined with those of the Greens in Germany, is the key reason for their decline. It also reflects a significant weakening of their two heads of state, Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron, and indicate the growing vulnerability of the Franco-German axis.
While it is still too early to speculate on the distribution of top jobs, we can reasonably expect Ursula von der Leyen to be reappointed as head of the European Commission, despite the challenges she faces. For other positions, the unpredictability of the far-right is likely to bring some surprises.
The configuration of this new Parliament – under increasing control of far-right and, to a lesser extent, far left national populism – and in the face of current geopolitical upheavals – is likely to exacerbate tensions between national interests during European debates. This could shift the centre of gravity of European power further towards the European Council, a trend that has been noticeable in recent years.
Euros / Agency offers its insight on the latest developments from Brussels. If you would like more information, contact Sloan Moreau (sloan.moreau@eurosagency.eu).