We still know remarkably little about the parameters within which the coming referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union will be held. We don’t even know when exactly it will be, nor what the terms of Cameron’s renegotiation are. All we know is that the prime minister is personally keen for Britain to stay in the EU, and that there are a number of broad areas for renegotiation on the table.
Britain’s relationship with Europe is likely to dominate much of this parliament in the same way that Scotland’s relationship with the UK dominated the final year of the last one, so it is worth considering what is already known.
There are in fact two parallel negotiations taking place: one between Britain and the EU, and the other between the prime minister and his party. Mr Cameron knows that he must come away from the negotiation looking victorious while allowing other European leaders to claim the same, a classic European fudge. That balance is harder to strike in the deliberately adversarial debating chambers of Westminster. Mr Cameron also knows that, on this particular issue, his main problem is not going to be the opposition, but members of his own party.
Eurosceptic Steve Baker MP has already set up a Conservatives for Britain group, which claims to have signed up 110 of the 330 Conservative MPs. A leading ‘awkward’ Tory backbencher, he and allies will almost certainly campaign to leave the EU regardless of the renegotiation outcome. His group is already making life difficult for the prime minister, rebelling on a vote on purdah rules for the referendum. The government won the vote, allowing the civil service to publish information in the run-up to the referendum which may affect its outcome, but only because Labour MPs abstained when it came to walking through the lobbies. Mr Cameron also had to execute a swift U-turn recently, allowing his ministers to campaign to leave without having to resign from government. The vociferous campaign to allow ministers to campaign for ‘out’, and the speed of Mr Cameron’s change of heart, show how tricky his balancing act is going to be.
So far, Mr Cameron has refused to publish his precise negotiating positions. In doing so, he avoids giving his opponents a free hit when he does not achieve everything he wants. Instead, he is sounding out his fellow European leaders on what they are likely to agree to before going in with a list of demands. So while the precise renegotiation issues will not be known until much closer to the referendum, we do know the four broad areas Mr Cameron will discuss: an opt-out from the principle of ever-closer union, a curb on migrant benefits, greater competitiveness amongst member states and a level playing field for countries which are part of the EU but not part of the Eurozone.
He has not yet formally demanded any actual treaty change, and may not seek to do so. Many heads of state in Europe are highly disinclined to reopen debates over treaty wording, and Cameron knows any change would be subject to parliamentary votes in a number of European capitals. Instead, he is likely to opt for technical changes of principle and legal modifications which would not alter any of the fundamental governing tenets of the Union. Even on the hallowed principle of ever-closer union, European leaders will be confident that a convenient equivocation can be found, allowing Mr Cameron to look successful without any significant change.
To do that, he will need the support of his Cabinet. A number of his team, such as Oliver Letwin and Michael Fallon, are personally sceptical about Britain’s place in Europe but politically loyal to Mr Cameron, so may be persuaded to vote for ‘in’. Others, such as Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling, may vote ‘out’ regardless of the renegotiation result.
The timetable is also crucial to his success. He has promised that the referendum will be held before the end of 2017. But both France and Germany have elections in 2017, the former in May and the latter in September. Neither Francois Hollande nor Angela Merkel will want the distraction of Britain’s negotiations taking place at the same time as their campaigns. Mr Hollande, especially, will not want to be seen to be capitulating to demands from the British before the voters go to the polls. Philip Hammond, the Eurosceptic Foreign Secretary, has said that he wants the negotiations to be wrapped up by summer 2016, which seems to fit with this timetable.
So Mr Cameron does not have much time. He has started a tour of European capitals, attempting to drum up support for reform. However, the Greek financial crisis, international terrorism and the Mediterranean migrant crisis are focusing the minds of European leaders away from Cameron’s priorities. He will be hoping that he can use the summits later in 2015 to to make further progress.
Making progress will be by no means easy. But with Cameron standing down within this term of office, the result of the vote will define his legacy as prime minister. Personally and politically, the stakes are high.