The EU referendum has generated an unparalleled level of political debate in the UK, the result of which is still too close to call. Although we cannot make any certain predictions, this briefing draws upon Whitehouse’s political expertise and media analysis to suggest what may happen to the Government’s composition in the event of:
- A strong vote to remain (by 8% or more);
- A weak vote in favour of remaining (by up to 8%); or
- A vote to leave.
If the UK chooses to remain by a wide margin, the subsequent reshuffle will afford an opportunity to repair the Conservative Party after a bruising campaign period. This result will prompt a flurry of parliamentary activity, renewing the Prime Minister’s mandate until he stands down closer to 2020 and enable a continuation of the Government’s reforming agenda, which has recently taken a back seat.
If the country votes to remain by a small margin, the Prime Minister’s assertions of authority over his fragmented party could further consume attention at Westminster. A leadership challenge is more probable under this scenario, but may be fended off by the large cohort of Conservative MPs who have supported 'Remain'. The resulting reshuffle will also need to reflect a choice between fostering reconciliation or revenge within the party.
If we vote to leave, a new Prime Minister will likely emerge from among the 'Leave' campaigners. What is questionable is whether Mr Cameron will stay in position to deal with the immediate questions posed by Brexit: such as the timetable for withdrawal, or how trading and diplomatic relations will proceed. Will he remain at Number 10, perhaps until a party conference in the autumn, or will there be more than one new beginning?
It is clear that the referendum result could create a new political reality on 24 June. Businesses must be prepared to engage if they are to mitigate the impacts and take advantage of the opportunities presented. You can download the full document online here. If you would like to discuss how Whitehouse can help your organisation please do get in touch.
