There are now fewer than 48 hours until polls open for the EU Referendum, the most important vote in living memory. Campaigning is back underway following tragic events surrounding Jo Cox MP, as both sides make their final push for votes. The Prime Minister has yesterday afternoon reiterated his economic case, and urged older voters to consider their children and grandchildren before voting Leave. This statesmanlike speech on a Downing Street podium should, along with the ringing endorsement from Posh & Becks, see Remain wrestle back the news headlines from the Brexit camp.
Leave’s shock lead in last week’s polls seems to be dissipating, with a number of surveys again predicting a slim Remain victory. In fact, the average of the six most recent polls returns a 50%-50% dead tie. The bookies, however, have swung drastically back towards Remain; one prominent bookmaker predicts a 76% chance of Remain, after 91% of all money staked on Monday 20th was backing the Remain side. If we head into the 23rd with the polls roughly equal, Remain will be more confident of picking up wavering and undecided voters, who are more likely to play it safe.
After weeks of harmony, deep-set divisions in the Leave camp were re-exposed as Nigel Farage unveiled a new poster, depicting a line of fleeing refugees above the caption ‘’breaking point’’. The ploy prompted party grandee and Brexiteer Baroness Warsi to yesterday defect to the Remain campaign, while Michael Gove said it caused him to ‘’shudder’’ and George Osborne compared the poster to Nazi propaganda. The ever controversial Farage chose to play victim, and argued that the row had only been inspired by Jo Cox’s death last week.
The latest tranche of papers have declared their allegiances in the campaign, with the FT, Sunday Times, and perhaps surprisingly the Mail on Sunday all backing Remain. It appears as though press recommendations in the Referendum won’t carry the same weight they do in a General Election, as people vote on their gut instinct rather than historical allegiance. All 20 Premier League clubs have joined David Beckham in calling for a Remain vote, a tactic could reach out to working class voters and just tip the scales in favour of Remain.
Jeremy Corbyn was the latest politician to face a TV grilling, and his performance did nothing to silence criticism over his lackluster campaigning. After his weekend admission that immigration controls would be impossible inside the EU, the Labour leader struck a sceptical tone, admitting that he is ‘’not a lover of the EU’’. However, most ordinary voters don’t ‘’love’’ the EU or any political institution for that matter; Corbyn’s begrudging, calculated endorsement of the EU might connect with the electorate more so than over-zealous partisans.
The end is nigh. Ballot boxes up and down the country are dusted off as millions prepare to head to the polls. You can look forward to a Referendum briefing on Thursday with the what, where and when, as well as Interel’s own take on the result and its implications early on Friday.
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