After winning the election in May, Prime Minister David Cameron secured himself another victory only a month later as he led both the Conservative and Labour parties through the Aye lobby in a vote supporting a referendum on Britain’s EU membership.
Having seemingly won the debate on whether a referendum should take place or not, the Prime Minister’s next task has been to begin the negotiations upon which the referendum was predicated.
Mr Cameron’s key aims now appear to be:
- Changing the rules around giving unemployment benefit to EU migrants;
- Ensuring that the UK is exempt from the “ever-closer union” declaration with the EU Treaty;
- Making sure that Eurozone countries could not impose changes to the rules governing the Single Market on those without the Euro;
- Giving national parliaments the right to club together to block new legislative proposals.
Although a number of these proposals are likely to cause controversy, they indicate a softening in the Prime Minister’s general stance.
He no longer appears to be suggesting limitations on freedom of movement within the EU – a proposal that has been soundly rejected by a number of other leaders – and appears generally to be adhering to a principle of common rules for all member countries on the issue of immigration.
The Prime Minister has also stepped back from his previous aim for Treaty change before the vote was held, suggesting some form of post-dated agreement by means of a formal protocol instead.
There also appears to have been a general change in tone with regard to the Prime Minister’s approach to his fellow European leaders, and in late May he was reported to have launched a “charm offensive” in his two-day tour meeting European leaders.
His meeting during the European Council was seen by some as an indication that he had been side-lined, as discussion of the Greek crisis and issues over migrants coming across the Mediterranean saw talk of Brexit cut down to a ten minute presentation.
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However, some have surmised that the event had been intentionally minimised by British diplomats so as to generate less controversy, with the Financial Times suggesting that even supporters of the plans had been discouraged from speaking up.
As Mr Cameron’s planned negotiations come to fruition, he appears to be taking an increasingly pragmatic and emollient approach, which may win him favours in a European Union still recovering from the stonewalling of the Greek referendum and bailout talks.
However, on the domestic front Mr Cameron continues to face challenges. Many in his party have increasingly begun to quibble over the details of the actual referendum vote, and the Prime Minister was forced into a climbdown on holding the referendum next May to coincide with elections in the devolved administrations.
In the first Commons rebellion during this Parliament, several Conservative MPs voted in support of implementing Purdah restrictions on civil servants around the referendum.
The EU Referendum Bill is expected to go into the Report Stage and receive its Third Reading on 7 September 2015, at which point the Bill will be sent to the Lords.
There have been suggestions there that Liberal Democrat peers intend to introduce an amendment allowing 16- and 17-year olds to vote in the referendum, as was the case with the referendum on Scottish independence.
There have also been suggestions that the domestic debate could undermine the Prime Minister’s negotiations, with Business Secretary Sajid Javid censuring the Confederation of British Industry for its openly pro-EU stance.
With suggestions that the EU referendum could be held earlier than the end of 2017, which is the Prime Minister’s self-imposed deadline for the poll, the domestic debate is likely only to increase in tempo.
How the Government will balance the hostile views of its backbenchers with its increasingly moderate tone in negotiations remains to be seen.
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DeHavilland’s UK and EU teams are collaborating on a series of briefings about the UK’s EU referendum. You can download a free copy of our first briefing here.