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With a general election in 2015 followed by an Assembly election and EU referendum in 2016, and then a second unexpected Assembly contest earlier this year, what does the second snap poll of 2017 mean locally?
In a 650-seat House of Commons, Northern Ireland MPs will secure 18 of these, though, depending on the results, up to seven could sit unoccupied as a consequence of Sinn Fein’s abstentionist policy.
The party’s former Fermanagh and South Tyrone MP, Michelle Gildernew, is contending for the spot she used to hold there, up against the UUP’s Tom Elliott, the incumbent. Chris Hazzard will put the SDLP under some pressure in South Down while pushing Sinn Féin’s “No Tories, No Border, No Brexit,” mantra. Add “no oath to the Queen” and one has the Sinn Féin strategy summed up nicely.
The parties that take their seats are split over Brexit, with the remainers comprising three SDLP MPs (if all return) and an independent, Lady Sylvia Hermon of North Down. On the other side, 10 unionists, from both the DUP and the UUP, support the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.
There is much speculation as to the fate of the SDLP trio. Will the election slogan ‘Taking our seats. Taking a stand’ protect them for the rising Sinn Féin tide in the three pro-remain constituencies they represent?
As the UK Government commences negotiations and embarks on the huge challenge of passing thousands of pieces of legislation, many are now looking to the Republic of Ireland government, rather than the Northern Ireland Office, to represent the interests of Northern Ireland in future negotiations.
As Sinn Féin moves its justification for abstentionism from one of principle to one of tactics (Northern Ireland’s MPs aren’t effective; Brexit will be fought in Dublin), the question begs: does it have a point?
Given the numbers, it is difficult to see how they can make a significant difference, unless a hung parliament requires critical mass from the smaller parties. We know that the DUP has been able to play a not inconsiderable role in certain debates (not least the one around the prosecution of former soldiers for conflict-related killings) as a result of the outgoing government’s slim majority.
While we shouldn’t forget the work of the Northern Ireland Select Committee and its enquiries into the energy sector and the impact of Brexit on the border, or the range of contributions made by local MPs to votes and debates, real power rests with the larger parties. Their mandates stem from the electorates of Birmingham and Bath, rather than Belfast and Banbridge.
This brings into sharp focus the clear need for the re-establishment of the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly, something unsurprisingly emphasised in the DUP manifesto. Direct rule from Whitehall is unlikely to address our unique needs or find local solutions to local problems; a London government might even be tempted to punish us for our errant ways.