As any American presidential campaigner will tell you, ensuring that expectations ahead of a debate are tempered is just good strategy. If your boss has been hyped up to win without question, and then fluffs it on the big day, then what in reality may have been a draw becomes a defeat. And so it was that last night Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling met for the first of a series of televised debates. While the pre-hype that it would be the most important debate in Scotland’s history may have been over-egging the pudding it did represent the beginning of the final stage of the campaign.
STV decided to break the debate up into component parts in front of a live audience, and moderated by presenter Bernard Ponsonby.
Just before the debate started new polling was released from Ipsos MORI:
No – 54%
Yes – 40%
Don’t Know – 6%
This is the highest result Yes have got in a poll by this company, although it should be noted that the gap between the two sides has been smaller in the past.
Opening Statements
Both men used their stump speeches to open proceedings, with Alex Salmond winning the coin toss and going first. His comments were a clear appeal to the Labour voters that the Yes campaign needs to attract to win the referendum. He attacked Westminster over imposing unwanted policies from the Poll Tax to Bedroom Tax, the austerity programme and Trident. He pointed out that there were more children in poverty, and an increase in food bank use. It was a strong start, and laid out the social justice agenda in a comprehensive manner.
Darling emphasised the importance of security and pooling resources to make Scotland a more prosperous place. He used the key words “best of both worlds” a number of times, and pointed out the commitment made by each of the pro-union parties to grant further powers to the Scottish Parliament. While clearly nervous, Darling was also good, and helped to draw a clear line between the two men.
Questioning – First Round
‘Risk’ was the buzzword in this section, with questions around oil reserves, transaction costs and exposure to financial services being put into the spotlight. For the First Minister, he pivoted to emphasising his vision of a fairer Scotland which would always vote for the Government it wanted. Darling focused in on the risks, and not wishing to see borders put up where they do not currently exist.
Again, both sides did well here. But after two years of making the same points, would anyone expect anything less?
Cross Examination
This was the section which defined the whole night, as both men were allowed to question each other directly. Darling went first, and as would be expected went on the issue of currency. What was Plan B was the questing Darling went back to time and again, using the full powers of his lawyer training. He delivered perhaps his best line of the night when he asked Salmond to “Contemplate for just one minute that you might be wrong.”
Salmond argued that it was Scotland’s pound just as much as the United Kingdom’s and that a currency union would be in the best interests for everyone. He referred back to the unnamed minister from the UK Government who said a deal would happen, and also the Fiscal Commission. None of it worked. The audience become increasingly hostile to him as he failed to answer the Plan B question.
Forensically, Darling laid out each of the four options Salmond had regarding currency and asked him to tell the audience which one he supported. Again the First Minister couldn’t make a strong case. It has been clear that the currency issue would be a tough one for Yes Scotland and this was exposed badly. This was the weakest point of the night for Salmond and was when the media narrative that Darling was doing well, began to take hold.
Salmond then questioned Darling. He opened with the question as to why Better Together called itself “Project Fear”. This was from an old Sunday Herald story which claimed that was the name some within the organisation referred to themselves as being. For the last year or so, the Yes side has been pushing the “Project Fear” label, but it has never really taken off as they might have hoped.
It was not the strongest start and more than anything showed general audiences the political bubble that this debate has so far been caught within so far. He got much stronger when trying to get Darling to agree with David Cameron that Scotland could go it alone. Clearly Darling has been advised to avoid links with the Prime Minister, but this was his weakest moment and resulted in heckling from the audience. Darling looked weak as Salmond continued to push the point, repeatedly asking the question in the style of Paxman.
Audience Questions
Economic questions dominated this section. Currency, pensions and higher education funding were all given due attention. However the energy in room seems to die down in the second half, with both Salmond and Darling content to replay battles fought time and again. The First Minister argued that Darling was the man at the helm of the financial crisis, in response, as everyone predicted he would, Darling produced the letter from Salmond to Fred Godwin expressing support for further expansion of RBS. And so it went.
There were one or two awkward moments for both men, with Salmond being told by a businessman of his disappointment with the answers on the night, and someone asking Darling if he was actually a resident in Scotland.
Closing Statements
Both Salmond and Darling were clearly tired by the end, and happy to wrap it up by going back to their opening statements. Salmond was stronger here, outlining his vision for Scotland, and ending with his best line of the night, “This is our moment – let’s take it.”
Analysis
It is likely this debate was much more of a draw than the media are portraying it in the papers this morning. But a draw is almost as bad as a loss for Yes Scotland, and puts the breaks on a building momentum. No one expected the currency issue to go well for Salmond but what was striking were the questions he asked in the cross examination. There was an opportunity there to present a vision, and try and pin unpopular Westminster policies on Darling but he failed to go there.
However the Yes camp shouldn’t become too concerned. This will be a distant memory by the time the BBC debate rolls along at the end of the month. Expect Salmond to come back a lot stronger for that meeting.
Better Together will be pleased. They played the expectation game well with the media picking up on the “advice” that Darling should “bore for Britain” and have been rewarded by some great coverage this morning. However, there will also be some relief that Salmond didn’t go for what seemed to be quite big targets. Yes Scotland strategists will have seen how Darling reacted to issues around poverty and trying to swerve away from the David Cameron sized elephant in the room. He is unlikely to be so lucky again.
You can find further analysis of the TV Debate as well as other commentary on major political events in Scotland in Grayling Scotland’s The Garden Lobby.