The financial face-off
Not to be outdone by last week’s nerve-shredding Brussels negotiations about the terms of Britain’s EU membership, the ‘months of wrangling’ between the Scottish and UK governments over Scotland’s public finances reached a last-minute conclusion this week.
In essence this means that new powers for Holyrood, set out in the Scotland Bill drawn up following the 2014 independence referendum, can now be formally ratified, with the changes to the funding formula for Scotland and the devolution of some income tax powers now agreed.
With the Holyrood election just 10 weeks away, this dispute was pretty useful for the SNP government, enabling it to reinforce to voters its clear strategy of ‘standing up for Scotland.’ Even more usefully for the Scottish government the agreement includes a caveat that both governments get round the table again in five years, just before the next election, to review the arrangements.
It is further evidence of what looks likely to be a pretty convincing victory for the SNP in May’s vote. Our most recent poll from mid-February gives the SNP a 30-point advantage over Labour in both the constituency and regional list elements of the election. So, while the outcome of the election may look inevitable, the story of the election may lie elsewhere.
The Scottish Conservatives are eyeing the possibility of pushing Labour into third place, which, if it happens, would send the Labour downfall into an even deeper spiral. We will also be looking to see whether the Greens can increase their representation in the parliament, which looks likely from current polling, and whether some of the minor parties, like RISE on the left and UKIP on the right, can make breakthroughs and recapture the ‘rainbow’ feel of previous parliaments.
It is possible that the June referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU may turn out to be the more significant political event of the year in Scotland, especially if the UK votes to leave against the wishes of a majority of Scots. Earlier in the week, the First Minister said that such an eventuality would lead to public demand for a second referendum. She wisely avoided a wholehearted commitment to a definite second referendum even in those circumstances because, although there is some evidence that a Brexit may increase support for an independent Scotland, she would probably want to see a long-term, significant polling advantage before calling for indyref2. There are a number of other reasons to suggest that she is likely to want more time to lay the ground for another vote.
And in the midst of ferocious arguments about the economic and social consequences of the referendum vote, it was good to see a more light-hearted story this week when UKIP’s Scotland MEP David Coburn said that another reason for leaving the EU was that European regulation has outlawed high energy toasters, ruining his breakfast on a regular basis.
Tenth time lucky?
Another weekend of 6 Nations rugby beckons with the Scotland team trying desperately to break a pretty miserable sequence in the competition. If they lose in Rome against Italy on Saturday it will be their 10th consecutive defeat in the competition.
The optimism generated from Scotland’s positive World Cup campaign last year has not yet been followed up by a 6 Nations boost. And while Italy have beaten Scotland in five of their eight 6 Nations meetings in Rome, this still looks like the best chance the Scots have of not finishing bottom of the pile again.
So let’s hope the Italians are toast on Saturday afternoon.