These are difficult days for the Scottish Government. Tight discipline has started to crack, senior SNP figures seen to openly support Brexit, the collapse of a deal with Chinese companies and a council by-election loss in Alex Salmond’s constituency.
Former Health Cabinet Secretary Alex Neil, has announced that, along with other SNP MSPs, he voted to leave the EU. Neil’s position was criticised by Toni Giugliano, a member of the SNP’s national executive, who said “supporting Brexit undermines the cause of Scottish independence”.
But, writing in the Daily Record, former SNP Deputy Leader Jim Sillars, and a close ally of Alex Neil, argued “why should the SNP seek to escape from the union with England and then surrender ourselves to a far larger union where, as Germany’s dictation to Greece shows, a small country can be bullied into submission?”
This spoke in the SNP Government’s Brexit wheel was coupled with the loss of a council seat in Aberdeenshire, an SNP stronghold. The Conservative vote rose by 20% while the SNP’s fell by 19%. While a single by-election loss will not lead to widespread panic, the defeat raises questions about the assumption that the SNP will sweep the board at next year’s council elections.
And the decision by Holyrood to redistribute £100m of council tax raised locally, to improve education attainment nationally, will cast further doubts on how well the SNP might do next May. Already East Lothian Labour Group has started campaigning on the basis that tax raised locally should be spent locally. Annual anticipated losses by councils includes East Lothian losing £3m, Edinburgh £10m, Aberdeenshire £5m and Perth and Kinross £3M.
And the Nationalists’ difficulties with council tax do not stop there. The Scottish Parliament has agreed to increase the tax rate from the top four council tax bands, with increases ranging from £102 to £503 annually.
The likely beneficiaries will be the Scottish Conservatives. On an upward swing having doubled their Holyrood representation at May’s Holyrood elections they will continue their revival in rural Scotland. And respected commentators believe that they could emerge as the largest party in Edinburgh-something that has not happened since 1977.
And, symbolically, pro-independence activists who had set up camp outside Holyrood, vowing they would occupy the area "until Scotland declares itself an independent country" have just been evicted.
The odds against IndyRef2 being called anytime soon are lengthening.