Old habits die hard in the Westminster village where the media and commentators see local and devolved elections as a verdict on the party leaders and an indication of the next General Election. Devo watchers, like the discerning readers of Devo Intelligence, will have seen the election results through much more informed eyes. These results tell us more about the state of politics in Scotland, Wales and the English cities and regions, than they do about Jeremy Corbyn or David Cameron. To paraphrase Tip O’Neill, all elections are now local.
The SNP’s re-election for a third term in power in Holyrood was never in doubt. The surprise is that Labour have now fallen behind the Conservatives in Scotland. The Tory revival has been a long road back from the collapse in support they experienced in the Thatcher years. Now that Labour is in a similar hole in Scotland they could look to the Tory example, recognising that it takes a great deal of time to detoxify a political brand. The Liberal Democrats have begun to do just that, showing some signs of life last night as they took back seats in Scotland and Wales.
What the Liberal Democrats know through experience, and Labour must now learn, is that a political rebuilding job starts at the local level. The Tories charismatic leader in Scotland, Ruth Davidson, and her new team gained ground not because of David Cameron but despite him. They have managed to shape their own new brand of Conservative politics in Scotland. This is part of the maturing of devolution, where elections are no longer all about Westminster, and parties can have a more distinctive local identify in the way that they do in other countries, like Germany or the USA.
In the Mayoral contests, the need for candidates themselves to appeal beyond their party support has long been clear, as famously demonstrated by Boris Johnson’s past victories in Labour leaning London. Zac Goldsmith appears not to have been able to pull of the same trick and although we won’t know until around midnight Friday all the smart money is on Sadiq Khan being elected to run the capital. The result of the Mayoral contest in Bristol won’t be known until Saturday but is already looking interesting from the dramatic rise in turnout at 45%, up from 28% last time around. Four years on, Labour’s Marvin Rees is hoping to reverse his narrow defeat to independent George Ferguson. Labour will take great encouragement if they can pull off a win here, but there is a pattern of independent candidates doing much better in Mayoral contests than they traditionally would in other elections.
In North Tyneside, a local referendum on whether to stick with the Mayoral model has resulted in a Yes vote. In Liverpool, Joe Anderson won re-election as Mayor comfortably. In other areas, shaping up for Mayoral contests next year, the local election results will give an indication of political landscape. In Greater Manchester, marginal Bury Council stayed under Labour control, while in Stockport, the Liberal Democrat Leader of the Council, Sue Derbyshire, lost her seat as Labour became the largest party. Rumours were swirling last night that Andy Burnham MP is considering a run for Greater Manchester Mayor. This is a further sign that devolved politics is becoming more attractive to some than Westminster. That is certainly the judgement that former Ogmore MP Huw Irranca Davis has made in Wales, where yesterday he swapped a Westminster seat for one in the Assembly. It is worth keeping an eye on Huw as some say he has his sights set on the First Minister’s job.
Across England the local council elections were fairly steady, with few councils changing control. Labour held on in Southampton, Nuneaton and Bedworth and Norwich. The Tories lost control in Worcester and Rugby but gained Peterborough from no overall control.
The results will keep rolling in over the next day or so but the pattern has already emerged and it is uneven and all the better for it. It can only be a good thing for democracy when voters consider the local issues and local candidates when they cross the ballot paper. These elections were not a referendum on Westminster politics but instead a rich tapestry of local contests, each with their own unique story.
Headlines
Andy Burnham “considering” running for Manchester devo-Mayor
Shadow Home Secretary and MP for Leigh, Andy Burnham has revealed that he is considering standing to be elected as Mayor of Greater Manchester. His spokesman said that he has been approached “to give consideration” to the role, but that he would continue to serve in the Shadow Cabinet if he did stand for Labour’s candidacy. However, he emphasised that it is “early days” and “no decision has been made yet”.
UK goes to the polls for Super Thursday elections
In what has been called "Super Thursday," elections took place yesterday for 124 English councils, the Scottish Parliament, Northern Ireland and Welsh Assemblies, as well as for Police and Crime Commissioners. There were also elections for City Mayors in London, Bristol, Liverpool and Salford, ahead of the first devo-mayoral elections next year.
MJ: Prime Minister to make local government leadership announcement
The MJ has revealed that the Prime Minister, David Cameron will be making a “key” early summer announcement focussing on local government leadership. According to the magazine, Number 10 Downing Street has commissioned the Department for Communities and Local Government to prepare a paper outlining how to ensure local government leaders are “fully equipped” for devolution following concerns about lack of professional development opportunities for council chief executives.
MPs warn devolution hindering public spending scrutiny
The House of Commons Public Accounts Committee has published a report, Accountability to Parliament for taxpayers’ money which concludes that increasing numbers of devolution deals and outsourcing for public services are undermining the ability of Parliament to hold Government spending to account. The Committee reports that Government Departments had been unable to tell the Committee who is accountable for elements of City Deals, allowing funding allocations to “proceed unchallenged, despite strong evidence of poor value for money".
What else is happening?
GREATER MANCHESTER
Housing the Northern Poorhouse
Jim McMahon, MP for Oldham West and Royton and a former council leader who helped to draft Manchester’s landmark devolution deal has dubbed the Northern Powerhouse a “poorhouse” and accused the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne of using devolution to reduce local government funding. His comments came at the launch of housing campaign Housing the Powerhouse’s new report, Greater Manchester: The Engine Driving the Powerhouse? which examines how housing and planning can enable the region to take full advantage of the powers and funding being devolved. Jim McMahon warned that Manchester’s devolution deal could fail if a “desperate” shortage of housing is not addressed.
WEST MIDLANDS
Draft WMCA order in Parliament
The draft West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA) establishment order has now been published in Parliament. The order, which formally establishes the WMCA, will now be debated by both the House of Commons and the House of Lords before the WMCA goes “live”, the date for which is expected to be the 1st June 2016.
GREATER LINCOLNSHIRE
Public consultation on Greater Lincolnshire devolution deal
Following the agreement of a draft deal in March 2016, councils in Lincolnshire have begun the process of reforming and finalising the devolution proposals. Each of the 10 councils will consider the proposal at their meetings in May, starting with North Lincolnshire on 10 May. The agreed proposals will then be put out to public consultation in July, which will feed into the final proposals submitted to Greg Clark in August.