The red drapes are down, flyers collected and the podium packed up and shipped off to storage (presumably standing next to Ed’s ten commandments). Hacks and hecklers alike have left Liverpool and politics returns to normal. Jeremy Corbyn is still running the sideshow while the country looks to Conservatives. But the question pressing against the minds of those of us still interested in the party, is what happens to Labour now?
For rebellious MPs, the increased mandate and clamours for unity may prove hard to resist. At conference Tom Watson mounted a passionate defence of New Labour’s time in government that earned him stern words from Len McCluskey and adoration from others, but despite the insubordinate tone, the message was clear. The party should unify in the face of a general election that could be soon to come.
Corbynology
Corbyn’s vision for the party contains much less of unity and more of “democratic” reform. He maintains that deselections will not occur for the “vast majority” of MPs, quite a threat for most. Whether through boundary change contests or more formal measures, Corbyn will be looking to select enough supporters to meet the 50-odd MPs needed to nominate a candidate in leadership elections. If he gets the numbers, he wouldn’t have to change the rules to ensure a radical successor.
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For the shadow cabinet, Corbyn’s proposals would see the body’s members selected in thirds by the leader, parliamentary party and party membership, resulting in a frontbench dominated by his supporters. Rather than a concession to MPs, this is an aggressive takeover. Similarly, he wants a far greater say over Labour HQ’s staff, believing them to be less than supportive.
Not Enough Committee
To bring in his reforms to the shadow cabinet, leader nomination process, and control over party staff, Corbyn needs the numbers in the National Executive Committee, the Labour Party lacking as it does the absolute rule of Conservative leaders. This is a prime reason why Corbyn might be reticent to offer shadow cabinet positions to rebels, as they come equipped with three plum positions on the committee.
Similarly, minor machinations at conference can be more important than one thinks. Proposals to increase powers for the devolved regions of Scotland and Wales by appointing them an NEC seat were passed, stripping Corbyn of his majority. Scottish Labour Leader Kezia Dugdale MSP and a representative for Welsh leader Carwyn Jones AM will both have a seat. They have been vocal anti-Corbynites meaning he will find it hard to enact the reforms he had hoped to.
With Corbyn tied up in the NEC, Labour MPs might expect some concessions in order to persuade them to return to the shadow cabinet. Or perhaps more likely, we could see proposals for more representatives on the NEC for councillors or members in order to swing the balance back.
Two-termer?
Lord Mandelson has said he is “praying” for an early election and a quick defeat. That might not be the saving grace he thinks, as Corbyn has said he won’t necessarily stand down if he loses a general election. If the goal is control, it’s doubtful he would do so without machinery in place to ensure the nomination of a radical successor.
The best we might hope for is a strong contender for the next leadership election. At conference we saw Sadiq Khan mount a strong challenge to Corbyn, trying to rouse the party with an appeal to power, and what can be done when you wield it. A vision many assume centres on a Khan 2025 campaign. A proven winner who is quickly making his mark on London, he could well be the panacea some are looking for (not to mention that his personal mandate puts Corbyn’s to shame).
Amongst all the intrigue, one thing is clear. Even with platitudes of peace, we are not going to see a united opposition for some time to come. While supporters might despair, and some Conservatives watch on with glee, it is undoubtedly political discourse, and the country, that will suffer.