The COP29 Climate summit in Azerbaijan was never going to be easy. Persuading 200 nations to agree on anything is a tall order at the best of times, and these are definitely not those.
Donald Trump may not be in Baku, but his name is on everyone’s lips. A second term as US President and his repudiation of the net zero orthodoxy is unnerving climate campaigners across the world.
During his first term of office Trump rolled back more than a 100 environmental policies and regulations. He also pulled the US out of the Paris climate agreement to limit the rise in global temperatures. This time it’s feared that President Trump may also seek to remove the world’s richest nation from the UN convention that underpins these climate talks
So, can the rest of the world fill the void? Today, the UK Prime Minister has been in Azerbaijan to offer global leadership on climate action.
The UK has set out its new emissions reduction target for clean power. Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to reduce emissions by 81% by 2035 compared with 1990 levels. This is the most ambitious target of any major industrial economy.
The UK also wants to be a global leader for green investment. While the UK Government may not be offering new public funds for developing countries, it does argue the private sector should do more. This morning the Capital Market Mechanism, created at COP 28 to attract private sector capital climate investment, announced its plan to list on the London Stock Exchange.
While Sir Keir may have made the journey to Azerbaijan, many other world leaders are absent. There is no President Biden. The leaders of China, India and the EU are also not there. Perhaps as significant, the Chief Executives of global financial services giants such as Bank of America, BlackRock, Standard Chartered or Deutsche Bank are also not there.
The big prize at COP 29 is a climate finance agreement to meet the needs of developing countries to help finance adaptation, resilience and renewables; what’s termed in the jargon as the “new collective quantified goal on climate finance.”
The EU is the biggest single provider of climate finance, and like the UK, wants greater collaboration between development banks and the private sector. China is resisting any suggestion that it should join the climate finance donor pool of developed nations.
But there has been progress on a deal to allow trading in carbon markets which has remained stalled for several years. A new UN mechanism is to provide rules on trading carbon credits between countries and companies. Campaigners argue more detail is needed on the standards to prove emissions reductions are both additional and can be easily verified.
Today in Baku, the UK Climate Change Secretary has sought to highlight the financial and security benefits of investing in renewables. Ed Miliband says the energy transition is unstoppable and that the independence from fossil fuels provided by solar and wind energy is essential to keep Britain safe.
The narrative on climate change is changing and the challenge is clear. While it may seem an inevitable consequence of Donald Trump’s election that the US is set to vacate its leadership role, efforts are now focused on convincing the new man in the White House that strengthening global co-operation on climate change is in all our best interests.