The atmosphere at this year’s Conservative Party Conference was far more positive than many predicted. Despite the battering delivered by the electorate in July, there was a strong sense of optimism to be found in the corridors and meeting rooms of Birmingham’s ICC. Part of this was undoubtedly due to Keir Starmer’s plummeting popularity ratings. But members also revelled in a sense of control not seen throughout the Government years, both in terms of voice in the conference hall and in the choice of leader that will ultimately be in their hands.
Political analysis
This is not 1997: In sharp contrast to Blair, Starmer was the most unpopular leader of the opposition to become Prime Minister in British history. The prevailing Conservative analysis is that Labour’s victory was a loveless landslide, a rejection of Conservative failure, not a positive choice for their opponent. This sense has been reinforced by a series of unforced errors by the Government, giving the Tories just a glimmer of hope that, if they are able to get their act together, then they could be in with a shot of taking back control in 2029.
Rebuilding trust: There was a shared recognition by all the leadership contenders of the need to acknowledge the mistakes the party made in delivery, and the need to formulate bold and viable policy proposals to address core issues – i.e., immigration, growing the economy and improving public services. Strangely, there was little talk about the historic election defeat, largely because conversations about the future of the Party primarily find expression through the choice of leader that took front and centre.
Sunak largely absent: It was easy to forget that Rishi Sunak remains the Leader of the party. He officially opened the conference and attended a few events on the Sunday before quietly slipping away. His attendance was barely noticeable, and that was deliberate, leaving the stage for his successors to charm the conference delegates, and therefore hopefully the Members of Parliament set for the next stage of voting on 9th and 10th October.
Leadership choices: The ongoing Conservative leadership contest provided a focus for the event, with conference-goers adorned in badges promoting their favourite to win. Each of the four leadership contenders outlined their vision for the future of both the country and the Party.
Robert Jenrick, the bookies favourite, placed immigration policy at the centre of his pitch, pledging to take the UK out of the European Court of Human Rights to allow the country, rather than Strasbourg, to control its borders. Nevertheless, wrongly or rightly, there is a sense among many members that his Damascene conversation to the right-wing of the Party doesn’t quite ring true.
Kemi Badenoch has long held the position of favourite among the party membership – she is bright, tenacious and willing to tackle highly charged political issues, such as those relating to the culture wars. However her tendency to shoot from the hip has somewhat mired her campaign in controversy. For example, her comments on maternity pay and that up to ten percent of civil servants should be in prison.
James Cleverly ended Conference by moving into second place in the betting markets, a success driven by his apology for past Conservative failures and, second, his infectious optimist for the future – ‘Sorry on behalf of the Conservative parliamentary party who let you down. We have to be better, much better, and under my leadership, we will be.’
Tom Tugendhat, whose campaign – pun-tastic merchandise aside - focused the need for a Thatcher-style ‘Conservative revolution’ (although we have heard this before from previous leaders with little subsequent free-market and small-state policy implementations) and his consistent warning on the economic consequences of a Labour government.
Next stages: Conservative MPs will vote in two more ballots on 9 and 10 October, to reduce the competition to a final two. From 10 to 31 October there will be a member ballot, shifting power to the membership. Time will tell which leadership hopefuls will make it through to the next round of the contest, although our money is on Cleverly and Jenrick. The winner is currently expected to be announced on 2 November, although we expect there to be pressure to speed up the member ballot to ensure the new leader is in place to respond to the budget on 30 October. Whether this happens largely depends on the views of the candidates who make it through to the final round.
Public affairs takeaways
1. Opposition is important - whether it’s the 70 Liberal Democrats or the 120 Conservatives, both parties will play a vital part in our democracy of holding government to account and scrutinising policies. The Tories remain inwardly focused, rebuilding following the election defeat and, in due course, will attempt to unite behind their new leader. They won’t be able to deal a blows in terms of Parliamentary votes, but their voices will be critical in the press and online. Their role in Select Committees and APPGs will be similarly vital to create platforms for creative opposition.
2. Get ready to engage with the new leadership. From 2nd November until Christmas, the new opposition leader will likely bury themselves in reforming HQ and preparing their initial policy positions. This is the opportune moment to get ready for their big relaunch in the New Year, and build those critical relationships.
3. Lack of money, and resources, means they’ll be desperate for help. The Conservatives are not currently flush with cash – the Party will have a relatively small team of political advisors who will be stretched across many different government portfolios. As a result, they will be very open to offers of support, suggestions of policy positions and guidance to assist in their objective of holding Labour to account. In this context, there are numerous opportunities for those seeking to grow partnerships and recruit allies, on all opposition benches.
If you would like to get in touch with the team, please contact Head of Public Affairs, Tim Snowball, at tim.snowball@mhpgroup.com