It now seems likely that any formal challenge to Boris Johnson’s leadership will be delayed until the conclusion of the Metropolitan Police investigation, and the pace of developments in Westminster will slow significantly.
What is the latest picture?
The publication of Sue Gray’s report yesterday was met with dissatisfaction on all sides, with the Prime Minister facing a fresh wave of calls for his resignation from MPs across the House in a fractious sitting of the House of Commons.
Johnson faced significant criticism from the Opposition benches, with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer calling for his immediate resignation, and the SNP's Ian Blackford asked to leave the Chamber after claiming the Prime Minister had misled the House.
The Prime Minister faced his own backbenchers at a session of the 1922 Committee – an influential group of Conservative backbench MPs – where he reportedly referenced his own near-death Covid experience and promised a closer working relationship between No10 and the Conservative Party. With his own MPs openly denouncing him, this was likely the first of many attempts by Boris to re-establish support by currying favour with his backbenchers.
Despite the reception amongst MPs, Downing Street ended the day believing the worst of the crisis was over, and that there was little action likely to be forthcoming from the negative rhetoric.
In the immediate term, the most significant changes will take place in the operational running of No10 and the Cabinet Office following Johnson’s promise of reform. Today’s papers suggest that election guru Sir Lynton Crosby will be the first new face to join the Central Government team, so whilst many will expect reform of the “excessive drinking culture” highlighted in the Gray report, it seems the Prime Minister’s office is focusing first on their chances at the next election.
What happens next and what does it mean?
Whilst the immediate threat seems to have passed, there are a number of challenges on the horizon for the Prime Minister:
Metropolitan Police Investigation: Having seemingly survived the publication of the (shortened) Gray report, the Prime Minister now faces the Metropolitan Police investigation into events at his office and residence. The Met Police are already under significant pressure to be robust in their investigation and subsequent findings, having already been criticised for the delay in launching an investigation, and claims from some Opposition MPs that the Met will be complicit in a “cover up”. There are no clear timelines for when the investigation will conclude, but with both the Prime Minister and his wife Carrie facing possible sanctions it will be the main political story playing out over the next few weeks.
National Insurance increase: Over the weekend Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak wrote a joint editorial reiterating their intention to proceed with the much-criticised National Insurance increase in April. No10 has been lobbied on a number of fronts for the rise to be delayed in light of the rising cost of living, cause in large part by increased energy costs and price hikes in supermarkets. The decision to press ahead is arguably a brave one for two politicians looking to secure public support. We can expect to see further challenges to the policy between now and the Spring Statement in March.
May Local Elections: In May, the Conservative Party will face its first election since “partygate” and there are many in the Party concerned about the likelihood of a hammering on election day. Polling from YouGov at the end of last week suggested that Johnson’s popularity amongst the public had reached a record low of – 52, with 72% of those polled holding an unfavourable view of the Prime Minister. Red Wall MPs in particular have pointed out the need for rapid reform to make amends with disgruntled constituents and Johnson (assuming he is still in office) will be held accountable if local election results show a shift away from the Conservative Party.
In the meantime, it seems unlikely that Johnson will face an immediate leadership challenge as the majority of Conservative MPs will want to wait until the police investigation has concluded before triggering a contest. That means that leadership hopefuls Rishi Sunk, Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt will continue to make the rounds to shore up supporters and establish their future policy platforms but are unlikely to be facing a vote of Tory members in the very near term.
Sue Gray has confirmed that there were limits on what she was able to publish in her report as a result of the ongoing police inquiry. The Prime Minister now faces mounting pressure to publish the report in its entirety as soon as allowed. The calls for the publication of the Grey report 2.0 is unlikely to lessen in the coming days, but Johnson has confirmed that the full report will only be published following the conclusion of the Met investigation. The published version of the report can be read here.
In an effort to rehabilitate his image, and that of his Government, Johnson is expected to go on a “policy blitz” in the coming weeks with a raft of new announcements. The long-awaited and much delayed Levelling Up White Paper is amongst the announcements stacking up in the No10 grid, and policy officials are reportedly struggling to find gaps for lower profile announcements. However, with many policies now being rushed through to create a good news cycle, any surprise announcements are unlikely to carry weight or have significant detail behind them.