The sun shone on Labour during their conference in Brighton. Despite predictions of a civil war erupting between Jeremy Corbyn and the party’s self-described moderates, Labour managed to maintain a reasonably united front.
That same sun was shining when the Conservatives unveiled their candidate for next year’s London Mayoral election, the biggest prize the party hopes to deny Mr Corbyn in May. And yet, despite his triumph, Zac Goldsmith’s victory reflects the challenge that Labour’s resurgent grassroots could pose to the Tories. Mr Goldsmith won 70 per cent of votes from a selectorate of 9,227. His opponent, Sadiq Khan won in a contest with nearly ten times that many voters.
When the Conservatives gather in Manchester for their annual conference it will be an opportunity to take stock on a remarkable year. An unexpected General Election victory in May has left David Cameron seemingly untroubled and MPs, party activists and staff will be in the mood to celebrate the freedom of majority government.
Nonetheless, the calm waters of victory hide some jagged rocks that the Prime Minister and his party will need to navigate in the months and years ahead.
With the EU Referendum already looming on the horizon, Mr Cameron will find plenty in the conference hall, bars and fringes clamouring for details of renegotiation. The Government has given little away and has little to show so far, apart from an EU-wide charm offensive and some broad aims. The Prime Minister is unlikely to give much away in Manchester, but some of his more Eurosceptic MPs may use the conference to test his resolve for reform.
There will be no better way for those already lining up to follow Mr Cameron into Downing Street to curry favour than by indulging the Tories’ favourite vice. The Spectator reported in the week before the conference that Cameron intends to stand down in the spring of 2019. We are a long way from the start of a formal leadership contest, but the contenders are already limbering up.
Chancellor George Osborne, reinvigorated from May, and a slightly flagging, but still ambitious, Boris Johnson are already jockeying for position. Education Secretary Nicky Morgan has indicated a desire to run and other members of the 2010 intake, such as Business Secretary Sajid Javid could also weigh in.
For now though, leadership ambitions will be placed on the backburner in favour of uniting cause. Alongside Party Deputy Chair Robert Halfon, Mr Osborne has embarked on a crusade to replace Labour as the “party of working people”. The Chancellor could use the conference to develop his theme, ahead of his flagship policy, the National Living Wage, coming into force in April.
And yet the greatest challenge for the Conservative Conference will be how to respond to Labour’s new leader. “Flashman” meets the “straight, talking honest politics” would not serve the party well. The only time Mr Cameron has faced Mr Corbyn over the Despatch Box so far, he played down his usual, hectoring style. There may be nothing to gain by attacking Labour and the tone of stable governing could be the course the Tories choose to steer.
Mr Cameron may be in the mood to celebrate his second term, but he would be unwise to think he is in for plain sailing.
DeHavilland has covered hundreds of fringe events and main speeches at the four main party conferences. Order a copy of their comprehensive conference briefing online here.
Author
Sam Hazelgrove
Monitoring Consultant
DeHavilland
@SamHazelgrove
@DeHavilland