Latest political polling: good for Labour, bad for Miliband
Our latest political poll for the Independent on Sunday / Sunday Mirror contains mixed news for Labour. While their headline lead has doubled since the last comparable poll in October, the improving economic news is doing little for the credibility of Labour’s top team as their economic trust ratings dip to their lowest level since March 2012. That date is important since it marks the moment when the granny / charity / pasty / caravan tax Budget cost George Osborne much goodwill.
| Latest voting intention: | |
|---|---|
| Con | 29% (-3) |
| Lab | 35% (nc) |
| UKIP | 17% (+1) |
| Lib Dem | 10% (+1) |
| Others | 9% (+1) |
The question of course is whether the improving economic news feeds through to an improved vote share for the Conservatives. So far, it has not – in fact Labour’s larger lead is entirely due to a 3-point loss by the Conservatives. But that is margin-of-error territory, and there is in any event a time lag between better economic news and a political dividend for the Coalition parties.
Whatever the economic reality, the political fundamentals remain the same. Labour still only need a 2-point swing to be the largest party. UKIP won 3% of the vote in 2010 while yesterday’s poll put them on 17%. Almost one in five people who voted Conservative in 2010 now say they intend to vote for UKIP. Even if half those dissident voters return to the Conservative fold before 2015 (which is far from certain) then on the other flank the Tories face a major problem with the many 2010 Lib Dem voters who will support Labour next time.
Labour of course face some big challenges of their own. Ed Miliband, while winning better reviews than he did before the Party Conference season, continues to struggle. 24% of people say their opinion of him has improved recently but 29% say it has got worse. While one in four of the public – including 21% of Labour’s own voters – tell us that they cannot imagine Ed Miliband as Prime Minister.
Finally, we asked voters whether people expect David Cameron or Ed Miliband would come across best in any TV debates at the next Election. 36% expect David Cameron to come across better than Ed Miliband, whereas 23% expect Ed to do better than Mr Cameron. This of course assumes Nigel Farage can be excluded from any debates. Either way, it is not altogether a bad thing for Ed Miliband to go into the debates as the underdog.
Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2,023 British adults online between 13th and 15th November 2013. Data were weighted to be representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
More information:
To sign up to receive the ComRes Pollwatch via email please visit their website.
To find out more about how ComRes market and opinion research can support your work, please contact:
Jasmine Morgan
020 7871 8655
jasmine.morgan@comres.co.uk