The Olympics is finally here, and it feels like it has kicked off just in time for Scotland to finally see some sunshine. The opening ceremony in Paris dominated headlines about the sporting event over the weekend, with some describing it as “unique” and others claiming it was a “chaotic mess”.
But, when chancellor Rachel Reeves said she was shocked, surprised and stunned, she wasn’t talking about the huge celebrations underway in France, she was referring to the near £20 billion hole in the nation’s purse - the worst economic inheritance since World War Two. Reeves will issue a landmark speech following a government spending audit today, arguing that the Tories “spent money like there was no tomorrow” (£). The chancellor will likely delay “unfunded” projects with “unfeasible timelines”, like the NHS hospital building programme, and prepare the ground for autumn tax rises. Those at the Institute for Fiscal Studies are surely laughing given their repeated warning of said “mysterious” fiscal hole. I wonder if Rishi Sunak at least left a cookie in the jar at Number 10.
Meanwhile, nominations close for the UK Conservative leadership competition this afternoon. Kemi Badenoch is the latest to throw her hat into the ring, and now joins James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, Tom Tugendhat, Priti Patel and Mel Stride in the race to replace Rishi Sunak. In a surprise announcement Suella Braverman has ruled herself out.
In Scotland, the Scottish Conservative leadership race has not officially started, but the current frontrunner and only confirmed candidate Russell Findlay MSP told the Scottish Daily Mail that he would not be dropping out of the competition despite receiving a warning from Police Scotland of threats against his life. Findlay, who was previously attacked, responded to the threats by stating that “you have to be defiant and stand firm for what you believe in”.
Across the pond, this week marks a significant step in the presidential race as Democrats are set to begin voting for vice president Kamala Harris to be the party’s presidential nomination on Thursday.
In case you missed it, client manager John Cumming analysed the direct implications that Donald Trump’s trade and global security approach would have on Scotland’s economy if the former president returns to the White House.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
- As the Edinburgh Fringe returns for its 77th year on Friday, Edinburgh International Festival chief executive Francesca Hegyi told The Financial Times (£) that the scope and scale of its cultural programme could be downsized due to its “broken” model of arts funding. Hegyi described the financial environment the International Festival operates in as “the most difficult” she can remember, with state funding static for the last 17 years and unstable corporate sponsorship conditions.
- The Times (£) is reporting that Scotch whisky distilleries, which depend on rain water for production, are at risk financially as the James Hutton institute found climate change could lead to double the number of “water scarcity” events in Scotland.
- Sir Rocco Forte, the chairman of the eponymous hotel group, which includes The Balmoral, criticised plans for new tourist taxes across Scotland and encouraged local authorities to boycott the levies, The Scotsman (£) reported.
- The Sunday Times (£) reported that, as finances remain stretched across the education sector, some of Scotland’s universities must merge or start heavily sharing services. Institutions outside of Edinburgh and Glasgow face these pressures acutely.
- With interest rate cuts looming, The Herald (£) analysed recent results from the financial sector and concluded that the owners of Scotland’s largest banks “remain in robust health”.
- According to the Competition and Markets Authority, motorists are paying £1.6 billion more for fuel than they should be as profit margins on petrol and diesel remain significantly above historic levels, reported Daily Business.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
- A change in UK government alongside a newly elected European Commission may sow the seeds for renewed relations between Britain and the EU, Martin Sandbu discussed in the Financial Times (£). Sandbu suggests plans to align British regulations with EU rules on the proposed product safety bill, for example, make “low-hanging fruit ripe for picking”.
- If anything’s certain, it’s that Britain’s public finances are in dire straits, and this is not a surprise to anyone that looked at the figures, Robert Colvile argued in The Sunday Times (£). It was, as Colvile wrote, a “legitimate strategic choice” by Labour to keep quiet during their election campaign on the severe fiscal decisions that would have to be made by the incoming government.
- The most ‘memeable’ US election ever: Alexander Brown explains in The Scotsman (£) why the 2024 election has just become the most “inadvertently funny US election of all time” with the entrance of Kamala Harris.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
The Scottish Parliament is in recess until 31 August, and Westminster rises for recess on 30 July until 2 September.
Monday
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Westminster
- Commons oral questions: Home Office
- Commons legislation: Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Bill
- Lords orders and regulations: Criminal Justice Act 2003 (Requisite and Minimum Custodial Periods) Order 2024
- UK: Rachel Reeves’ speech on the country’s finances in the Commons, nominations for UK Conservative leadership contest close, new FCA rules on UK listings take effect, Michael Ashcroft’s book on Kemi Badenoch to be published
- US: President Joe Biden marks US Civil Rights Act anniversary in Austin
Tuesday
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Scottish Government data
- Scottish Welfare Fund Statistics
- Westminster
- Commons oral questions: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development
- Commons legislation: Budget Responsibility Bill
- Lords oral questions: Regulating artificial intelligence technologies
- Lords oral questions: Publishing of the Crown’s new lease extension policies for residential properties
- House rises for summer recess, to return on 2 September
- UK: Angela Rayner unveils Labour’s new National Planning Policy Framework to MPs
- US: Kamala Harris campaigns in Georgia
Wednesday
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Scottish Government data
- GDP: Quarterly National Accounts
- US: Donald Trump holds rally in Pennsylvania
Thursday
- UK: Bank of England to make first interest rate decision since new government, Scottish ban on XL Bully dogs takes effect, National Cycle to Work Day
- US: Voting to begin for Democratic candidate for the presidential race, tariff increases on an array of Chinese imports
- EU: Artificial Intelligence Act enters into force
- UN: Security Council monthly presidency rotates from Russia to Sierra Leone
Friday
- UK: 77th Edinburgh Fringe Festival begins
Saturday
- UK: National Eisteddfod of Wales