It will be Rachel Reeves’s most consequential week yet when she stands at the despatch box on Wednesday and delivers her first budget since becoming chancellor. Amid anticipations of new tax hikes, the Treasury has trailed a few announcements including an expected 2p rise in employer national insurance and fiscal rules changes that would give expand the government’s ability to borrow billions more to fund major investment projects.
Meanwhile, as Holyrood returns to session on Tuesday, finance secretary Shona Robison is looking ahead to her own fiscal announcement and signalling the Scottish Government will need cross-party support when she delivers the budget in December. According to The Scotsman, Robison says that the SNP is ‘willing to work’ with both the Conservatives and Labour on the country’s finances.
On Tuesday, family and friends will bid farewell to former first minister Alex Salmond in a private funeral in Strichen near Aberdeen. Salmond died in North Macedonia of a suspected heart attack earlier this month. A public memorial is expected to happen in the coming weeks.
The Conservative leadership race will come to an end this week as the party chooses its next leader. The ballot will close on Thursday in the final round between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, with results announced on Saturday. Badenoch has emerged the favourite in the race which will see the party take a rightward shift from Sunak’s leadership, regardless of who ultimately prevails in the contest.
Tuesday will also mark one week from when Americans officially choose their next president and the polls are indicating it will likely come down to a ‘photo finish’. Anxious Democrats have been left with little comfort as the race has tightened to a near dead heat in both national and swing state polling. The New York Times’ latest national poll on Friday shows both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with an even 48% support among likely voters.
by Will Torness, client manager
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Just weeks after Keir Starmer officially announced that GB Energy would indeed be headquartered in Aberdeen, The Scotsman (£) reports that, according to leaked emails, the institution’s new boss, Juergen Maier, will be based in Salford, England.
Plans have been approved for a new £10 million business park in a push to that could breathe new life into a one-time industrial area at Ravenscraig. The Herald (£) reports that Fusion Assets have received planning permission for a new employment hub that will include a mix of industrial buildings for small and larger businesses.
Weeks after new minimum unit pricing came into effect in Scotland, Daily Business reports that two SNP MPs are now calling on the chancellor to cut tax on Scotch whisky, pointing to analysis by the Scotch Whisky Association which found that Treasury revenue fell by nearly £300 million after a rise in spirits duty last year.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
A Financial Times (£) editorial assesses the competing challenges of the chancellor’s upcoming budget, laying out three key tests that will need to be passed to show Rachel Reeves can steady the British economy.
In an article for The Times (£), Monzo co-founder Tom Blomfieldargues that an ‘entrepreneur problem’ in the UK has stymied innovation and calls for a change in the national psyche to inspire young talent into more risk-taking careers.
A week after Donald Trump claimed election interference over Labour activists travelling to campaign in the US, Phil Tinline of The New Statesman (£) writes that the American Right’s critique of British society goes much deeper.
Shifting the dial - recent research
Ahead of chancellor Rachel Reeves’s budget announcement on Wednesday, an Ipsos poll shows that 53% of Britons are more fearful of how the budget will impact their personal financial situation, while 46% are more fearful of how it will impact public services.
The same poll also found that a slightly larger share of respondents (35%) would prefer the government increase borrowing to spend on public services even if it raises the national debt, versus 31% who say that borrowing should be reduced even if it means spending less on public services. 35% would also prefer the government increase public services spending even if it means more in personal taxes, compared to 29% who would prefer government tax cuts and lower public services spending.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Scottish Government data
- Scotland’s labour market insights for October
- Kamala Harris to campaign in Philadelphia with Barack Obama and Bruce Springsteen
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Scottish Government debate: fiscal sustainability
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will consider the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) Bill at stage 2
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee to take evidence on: Town and Country Planning (Amendment of National Planning Framework) (Scotland) Regulations 2024; Masterplan Consent Area Scheme (Environmental Impact Assessment) (Scotland) Regulations 2024; Town and Country Planning (Amendment of Local Development Plan) (Scotland) Regulations 2024; Town and Country Planning (Masterplan Consent Areas) (Scotland) Regulations 2024. It will also consider its approach to the implementation update on short-term lets and consider the Housing (Scotland) Bill draft stage 1 report
- Health, Social Care and Sport Committee to take evidence for the independent review of gender identity services for children and young people; will consider draft report on the National Performance Framework; will consider the third report on the regulatory alignment with EU law; will consider its approach to scrutiny of the Right to Addiction Recovery (Scotland) Bill at stage 1
- Delegated Powers and Law Reform Committee to consider Budget (Scotland) Act 2024 Amendment Regulations 2024 (SSI 2024/Draft) and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme (Amendment) (No. 2) Order 2024 (SI 2024/Draft); will consider the powers to make subordinate legislation within devolved competence on Scottish Ministers and UK Ministers in the Renters’ Rights Bill (UK Parliament legislation)
- Finance and Public Administration Committee to take evidence on the Scotland Act 1998 (Specification of Devolved Tax) (Building Safety) Order 2024
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Scottish Government data
- Scotland redress scheme annual statistics
- Short-term lets licensing statistics to 30 June
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Westminster
- Great British Energy Bill: remaining stages in the House of Commons
- Renters’ Rights Bill debate in House of Commons
- Funeral for former first minister Alex Salmond
- Homicide in Scotland statistics for 2023/24
- Results from: Alphabet, BP, Santander, HSBC, McDonald’s, Lufthansa, Liberty Global (Virgin Media)
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio questions: Deputy first minister responsibilities, economy and Gaelic.
- Scottish Conservatives party debate: Finance and local government.
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Rural Affairs and Islands Committee will consider draft letter to the Scottish Government in its pre-budget scrutiny 2025 to 2026.
- Citizens Participation and Public Petitions Committee will consider draft report for the inquiry into A9 dualling project
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Westminster
- Prime Minister’s Questions
- Autumn budget statement
- Scotland Office: oral questions
- US and EU Q3 GDP
- Results from: Microsoft, Meta. Standard Chartered, NEXT, Starbucks, eBay, Eli Lilly, Volkswagen
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions
- General Questions
- Portfolio Questions: Net zero, energy, and transport
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Consulting Scotland
- Purpose built student accommodation: notice to leave tenancy student survey (closing)
- Purpose built student accommodation: notice to leave tenancy provider survey (closing)
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Westminster
- Business and trade: oral questions
- Continuation of budget debate
- Renters’ Rights Bill: debate in House of Commons
- Conservative leadership ballot closes
- European Central Bank economic bulletin
- October Eurozone inflation rate data
- Results from Apple, Amazon and Shell.
Friday
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Scottish Government data
- Revenue Scotland statistics: Annual summary of trends in devolved taxes
- Nationwide October house price index
- US October employment report
- Equal Pay Day
Saturday
New Conservative leader announced.