Will Torness, client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
With just over a week to go before finance secretary Shona Robison delivers her latest budget, the minority SNP government is hitting new roadblocks as it tries to shore up support. The Scottish Lib Dems have signalled they are a ‘long way’ from an agreement, with leader Alex Cole-Hamilton warning that his party will vote down any budget that includes spending on independence. Following the collapse of the Bute House Agreement earlier this year, the SNP has little room for error and will likely be counting on either the support of the Lib Dems or the Scottish Greens to push the budget over the line. Despite the challenge and recent rhetoric, both parties have suggested an agreement is possible.
In Westminster on Friday the debate on assisted dying legislation will take centre stage once again as it goes to a vote in the House of Commons. The Labour government cabinet appears split on its support for MP Kim Leadbeater’s bill, which has stoked controversy even amongst party ranks. Prime minister Keir Starmer has not indicated which way he will vote but has given MPs a free vote on the issue.
Voters in Ireland will go to the polls on Friday in the country’s parliamentary elections after the Taoiseach Simon Harris called for a snap vote in the hopes that his centre-right Fine Gael party can secure a fourth term in office. The party remains locked in a tight race with its coalition partner, Fianna Fáil, and chief opposition, Sinn Féin, in the latest poll.
On Saturday morning, an invitation-only memorial service for Alex Salmond will take place at St. Giles’ Cathedral in Edinburgh and live-streamed online, just over one month after the former first minister died of a heart attack in North Macedonia.
And in case you missed last week’s View from the Street, partner Tom Gillingham wrote about the prevalence of declinist language regarding Scotland’s energy potential and how a shift in tone could unlock new opportunities across the sector.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s plan to levy inheritance tax on pensions is facing new blowback. According to the Financial Times (£), UK wealth managers are warning Reeves that removing the exemption of pensions from inheritance tax would undermine the pensions system overall and could result in a ‘double taxation’.
The vast majority Scottish business leaders appear in favour of phasing out oil and gas in the UK, with 77% of senior business leaders saying it is in the public interest and 70% backing Labour’s plan to end new rounds of oil and gas licensing in the North Sea, according to a survey reported by Insider.
The public is getting a new look at the £68 million arts project that will revitalise the former Royal High School building on Calton Hill. New renderings of the soon-to-be established National Centre for Music were reported in The Scotsman (£), along with details of how the space will be used as a cultural hub in Edinburgh.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
As Scotland sits wedged between last summer’s general election and the 2026 Holyrood vote, Alex Massie writes in The Times (£) that a populist turn in Scotland should not be counted out as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK begins to show early signs of relative polling strength.
The US Democrats’ electoral defeat may be considered an early warning signal to the Labour Party, writes Sonia Sodha in The Guardian. She argues that the myriad issues facing the UK will require a more sobering communications strategy from the government to hedge against a future incumbency backlash as it delicately balances no shortage of tall orders to deliver.
In The Herald (£), Ian McConnell suggests that, following recent comments from the Bank of England Governor on the ‘consequences’ of Brexit, it’s time for those in power to finally face the music of its drag on the UK economy with more than simply words.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Confederation of British Industry annual conference in London
- NATO cyber defence conference in London
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Committee of the Whole Parliament: Stage 2 and stage 3 Proceedings for the Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Bill
- In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee to consider the Town and Country Planning (Fees for Applications) (Scotland) Amendment Regulations 2024; consider the minister for public finance’s statement on the launch of a new housing planning hub
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee to take evidence from Ferguson Marine on the MV Glen Sannox and MV Glen Rosa; take evidence on the Land Reform (Scotland) Bill at stage 1
- Health, Social Care and Sport Committee to take evidence on the National Care Service (Scotland) Bill
- Adjournment: Government funding for improvements to coastal infrastructure in Scotland
- Commons General Committee: Oral evidence on the Employment Rights Bill
- Private sector rent statistics, Scotland 2024
- Scottish Child Payment, high-level statistics to September 2024
- NHS waiting times, November 2024
- GDP first quarterly estimate, Q3 2024
- Westminster
- Scottish Government data
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio Questions: Rural affairs, land reform and islands health and social care
- Scottish Labour Party debate on health
- Westminster
- Prime minister’s questions
- House of Lords: Oral questions on reporting to parliament on the work of the Council of Nations and Regions
- GDP estimate, Q3 2024
- Closing: The Scottish Tied Pubs Adjudicator’s Investigation Policy
- Scottish Government data
- Consulting Scotland
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First minister’s questions
- General questions
- Portfolio questions: Social justice
- Stage 1 debate: Housing (Scotland) Bill
- Financial resolution: (Housing (Scotland) Bill
- Westminster
- Culture, Media and Sport Committee: Oral questions
- Westminster Hall debate: The fishing industry
- House of Lords: Orders and regulations on the Bail and Release from Custody (Scotland) Act 2023 (Consequential Modifications) Order 2024
- Commons General Committee: Oral evidence on the Employment Rights Bill
- Closing: Proposal to allow proxy voting by councillors
- Consulting Scotland
- Thanksgiving (US)
Friday
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Westminster
- Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill: Second reading
- Bank of England financial stability report
- Black Friday
Saturday
- Memorial service for Alex Salmond in Edinburgh
- St. Andrew’s Day