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Cratus 23

Phoebe O'Carroll-Moran, client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.

John Swinney is expected to call for a “new direction” from the UK government on the economy this week. At a speech due to be delivered in Glasgow on Wednesday, the first minister will highlight Labour’s wobbly economic performance and call for an “evidence-based” approach to immigration and EU membership.

Meanwhile, The Scotsman yesterday reported that Scottish ministers are preparing to request powers to introduce wealth taxes after the next Holyrood election. The government is facing a variety of financial pressures including a forecast £8.8bn in social security payments as well as its pledge to scrap the two-child benefit cap.

A Scottish Labour MP, Brian Leishman, will reportedly seek to introduce a similar policy at the party’s conference in February, to the chagrin of leader Anas Sarwar.

Finally, president Trump’s inauguration will take place today. The president will be sworn in at 5pm GMT, with the BBC broadcasting the event from 3:30pm. As the new administration gets under way, pundits and policymakers alike will be watching closely for any indication of Trump’s approach to Scotland. The first minister has previously indicated he plans to appeal to the president’s personal connections to country in a bid to avert tariff barriers.

In brief - Scotland's economy and business

A fault on the Glen Sannox ferry is causing disruptions just days after its maiden voyage. Already millions of pounds over budget, the ferry launched just last Monday after a 6-year delay.

The Scottish Property Federation (SPF) has stressed that the sector has “one arm tied behind our backs” as it set out its proposed amendments to the Housing (Scotland) Bill. Speaking to The Herald, SPF chief executive David Melhuish highlighted the stifling impact of rent controls (£).

Labour minister Kirsty McNeill has come under fire for claiming the party has “ended austerity” (£). McNeill, who was elected to represent Midlothian at last year’s general election, made the comment during an interview with the BBC, prompting criticism from opposition parties.

Finally, it’s another bump in the road for local councils: a freedom of information request has revealed that 400,000 potholes have been reported across Scotland since 2021. The real figure is likely higher still, as two councils failed to provide complete figures.

OpinioNation - columns of interest

Following the defection of a Conservative councillor last week, Alex Massie examines the troubled state of the Scottish Tories (£) under new-ish leader Russell Findlay. Massie argues that the reduced salience of independence has left the party rudderless.

Trump’s election also puts on ice any remaining hopes of an independence vote in the near future (£), according to the new head of the Scottish Council for Global Affairs. Speaking to Neil Mackay for The Sunday Herald, Dr Mateja Peter argued that the volatility of a Trump presidency will force policymakers to prioritise stability over disruption.

In a video interview with New York Times opinion, former Trump staffer Sean Spicer reflects on the changes to the president’s operation, offers an eye catching soundbite, and explains what this signals for his administration to come.

Shifting the dial - recent research

Office workers are concerned about the impact of AI, but an MIT study shows the tech also has the potential to shake up the scientific process.

When applied to their research, material scientists found AI boosted discoveries by 44% and patents by 39%. However, its impacts were not evenly spread. Top researchers were able to use the technology to gain an additional edge, while labs that already performed less well were further disadvantaged.

The kicker? 82% of scientists reported a hit to their job satisfaction, as AI muscled in on idea generation.

The week ahead - fill your diary with key events

Monday

  • Donald Trump to be sworn in as US president for the second time
  • Blue Monday
  • Martin Luther King Jr. Day
  • Chris Whitty, Jonathan Van-Tam and Jenny Harries to appear at the Covid inquiry

Tuesday

  • In the Holyrood chamber
    • Scottish Government debate: compensation for WASPI women
  • In the Holyrood committee rooms
  • The Health, Social Care and Sport Committee will take evidence on the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill Stage 1
  • The Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will scrutinise the 2025 – 26 Budget
  • The Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will scrutinise the 2025 – 26 Budget
  • The Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will take evidence on the Great British Energy Bill from Michael Shanks MP, UK government minister for energy
  • The General Committee will debate the Tobacco and Vapes Bill
  • The General Committee will debate the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill
  • The Industry and Regulators Committee will take oral evidence on the energy grid and grid connections
  • High Court begins Prince Harry vs The Sun case
  • At Westminster

Wednesday

  • In the Holyrood chamber
    • Portfolio questions: rural affairs, land reform and islands: health and social care
    • Scottish Conservative and Unionist debate: education and skills
    • Scottish Conservative and Unionist debate: net zero and energy
  • In the Holyrood committee rooms
  • The Economy and Fair Work Committee will take evidence on the City Region and Regional Growth Deals
  • The Rural Affairs and Islands Committee will take evidence on the 2025 – 26 Budget
  • The Education, Children and Young People Committee will take evidence on the Higher History Review 2024
  • Prime minister’s questions
  • The Scottish Affairs Committee will take oral evidence on GB Energy and the net zero transition
  • At Westminster
  • Labour Market Statistics for 16-24 year olds: Scotland and UK, Statistics from the Annual Population Survey October 2023 to September 2024

Thursday

  • In the Holyrood chamber
    • First minister’s questions
    • Member’s Business Debate – Michelle Thomson: promoting the role of women in Scotland’s journey to net zero
  • At Westminster
  • The General Committee will debate the Tobacco and Vapes Bill
  • General debate: Holocaust memorial day
  • Adjournment: impact of the Autumn Budget 2024 on high street businesses

Saturday

  • Burns night
  • Farmers protest inheritance tax changes

Sunday

  • Belarus presidential election