“Keep the faith”. Those were the words of Scotland manager Steve Clarke after the national men’s team was thrashed 5-1 by hosts, Germany, in the opening game of the European Championships on Friday evening.
Back home, ‘faith’ is what the political parties continue to try and inspire among the electorate as we head into the final weeks of the general election campaign.
Important reminder: the deadline to register to vote in the general election is midnight on Tuesday 18 June. Make sure you’re registered, and don’t forget your photo ID on polling day.
Last week saw most of the main UK parties publish their manifestos, and this week the attention turns to Scotland with Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives set to unveil their own policy proposals.
The SNP will publish its manifesto on Wednesday. This will likely include proposals on issues like child poverty, immigration, and Europe. These are the areas where the SNP believes it can draw a distinction between it and Labour. First Minister John Swinney has repeatedly claimed that growing Scotland’s economy is a priority for his government, so it is likely this will also be a main feature.
Ahead of the party’s manifesto launch, Swinney will be visiting a key Labour target seat in the Western Isles and some other Highland constituencies.
The subject of Europe will be brought into focus by Rachel Reeves this week, with an FT article yesterday reporting that the likely next chancellor will work to improve trading links with the EU, potentially agreeing closer alignment with Europe on regulatory matters.
Another big issue this week will be the economy, with the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting to vote on interest rates. The Daily Business reported at the weekend that inflation could fall close to the bank’s target of 2%, but that this isn’t likely to lead to a reduction in interest rates, which would be inconvenient for Rishi Sunak’s election campaign.
In case you missed it, client manager Will Torness penned last week’s View from the Street in which he discussed how the rise of the far-right globally means that time will be of the essence for a potential Labour government to demonstrate the value of moderate politics.
Have a great week. And as focus turns back to Steve Clarke and the men’s national team again on Wednesday - let's all keep the faith.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
The Nuclear Industry Association has fiercely criticised first minster, John Swinney, for his “ideological and anti-science” opposition to nuclear power after Swinney saidthat he was “not a fan of the nuclear industry” and would “not support investment in nuclear power plants.” The Herald reported on the industry associations comments, with Tom Greatrex, chief executive of the Nuclear Industry Association, saying, “The facts show that Scotland’s nuclear power stations have saved more carbon by far than any other source in the nation’s history, and still today the industry provides high-quality, skilled jobs to some of the most deprived communities in Scotland.”
The Times published an article yesterday, reporting on comments from the Scottish Government’s culture secretary, Angus Robertson, that art festivals and other cultural organisation face an “existential threat” as a result of campaign groups forcing corporate funders to end their financial support. The article quotes Robertson, saying “Disinvestment campaigns are fundamentally undermining the arts sector causing immediate financial challenges and now face contagion by deterring further private sector and philanthropic support.”
The Courier is running a piece this morning, shining a spotlight on Dundee based Hyper Luminal Games. The owners, Rob Madden and Stuart Martin, worked together in their final year of University at Abertay, and now employ 85 people as part of the cities flourishing video games industry. The company is now Scotland’s largest work-for-hire games studio, with turnover exceeding £3 million in 2022.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
Iain MacWhirter wrote a piece for The Sunday Times in which he argued that Labour’s commitment to constitutional reform could have unintended consequences. MacWhirter notes that while issues like devolution weren’t a personal priority for Tony Blair, it became a defining element of his time in office. Turning to a Starmer premiership, MacWhirter suggests that a Labour government, with a super-majority, could deliver a federalist UK almost by accident.
Myrtle Dawes, chief executive of the Net Zero Technology Centre, wrote an op-edfor The Scotsman in which she highlighted the growing political and public interest in energy policy. Dawes also noted analysis which suggests that 35% of greenhouse gas reductions depend on the development of new technology, which requires collaboration between policy makers, the energy sector, and innovators.
Rebecca Baird wrote an interesting article for The Courier yesterday, exploring the acute unemployment crisis in Dundee, the particular challenge of long-term joblessness experienced by men, and the direct impact this had on her dad. She describes, in detail, the soul-destroying affect this can have, how this issue manifests itself in Dundee, and why policy makers need to address it with urgency.
Shifting the dial - recent research
Survation published the findings from their first MRP poll since Nigel Farage took over as leader of Reform UK. The poll of 22,000 voters predicts that Labour is set to win 456 seats, with the Conservatives facing near extinction with only 72 seats in the House of Commons. The Scottish predictions emerging from this poll are particularly interesting, given that it places the SNP firmly ahead of Labour in Scotland, with John Swinney’s party winning 37 seats compared to only 14 for Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour.
In their analysis of these findings, Survation describes the SNP as having “a very high floor of support”. They say that their “MRP analysis shows a weakened but strong SNP, who are poised to remain the largest party in Scotland. Yet many seats in Scotland are on a knife-edge.”
Our view is that the Scottish findings in this poll should be treated with caution. It predicts an SNP victory in seats with distinct local dynamics which could make this difficult. It also suggests the SNP will win every seat in Glasgow, which does not align with the findings of most other recent Scottish opinion polls. However, the gap between Labour and the SNP is much smaller than the lead that Labour currently enjoys across the UK, making the outcome of the general election in Scotland much more difficult to predict.
This is the kind of detailed insight which we’re providing to clients throughout the general election campaign and beyond. Please get in touch to learn more about our services and our bespoke general election offering.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Manifesto: Reform UK to launch their “contract to the people” with party leader, Nigel Farage, making a speech in the afternoon
- Scotland’s economy: Holyrood Sources to host a live recording, discussing how we can grow the Scottish economy. John Cumming, one of our client managers, will be there if you would like to say hello
- EU: European leaders gather for an informal meeting of the European Council
- France: parliamentary election campaign begins
- Trump: house speaker Mike Johnson and other senior Republicans to meet former president Donald Trump at his Florida residence, Mar-a-Lago
- Property: Rightmove to publish their June house price index
Tuesday
- General election: voter registration closes at midnight
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Holyrood:
- MSPs to debate the Agriculture and Rural Communities (Scotland) Bill at stage three
- The local government, housing and planning committee will meet to hear evidence from key housing sector representatives and senior officers from local authorities including Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Argyll and Bute
- Arts: The 256th London Royal Academy Summer Exhibition opens to the public
Wednesday
- Manifesto: The SNP launches its manifesto for the general election
- Deadline for postal vote registration
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Holyrood:
- MSPs to debate a Scottish Government motion on growing the economy
- Scottish Government ministers to take questions on rural affairs, land reform, health and social care
- Economy: UK May consumer price index, producer price index, inflation rate statistics published
- Film: the UK’s largest independent film festival, Raindance, opens in London
- US: Juneteenth National Independence Day
- Euros: Scotland to play Switzerland with the minister for sport, Maree Todd MSP, representing the Scottish Government at the match
Thursday
- Debate: the BBC’s question time to host a special programme with the leaders of the four largest parties in Westminster
- Economy: Bank of England interest rate decision
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Holyrood:
- First minister’s questions
- Housing minister, Paul McLennan, to deliver a ministerial statement on the Scottish Government response to Scotland’s housing emergency
- Conservative MSP, Jamie Greene, to lead a debate on West coast ferry disruption
- MSPs to debate the Gender Representation on Public Boards (Amendment) (Scotland) Bill at state three
- Summer solstice
- Climate: former governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger, holds his annual climate conference in Austria with European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, and UN secretary-general, António Guterres, due to speak
- Ladies Day at Royal Ascot
Friday
- Wales: the Welsh party leaders go head-to-head in a TV debate.
- EU: European finance ministers meet at the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin)
Saturday
- State visit: The Emperor and Empress of Japan arrive in the UK
- Windrush Day: communities gather to recognise the contribution of the Windrush generation in the UK
Sunday
- Brexit: eighth anniversary of the UK’s vote to leave the EU