Rebecca Mason, associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
European and NATO leaders are set to convene in Paris this afternoon. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, called for urgent discussions, prompted by growing concerns over US president Donald Trump’s efforts to dominate the Ukraine peace process. Confirming his attendance, UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, described the talks as a “once-in-a-generation moment for our national security,” emphasising the need for Europe to assert its strategic importance and push for a more prominent role within NATO.
As the Scottish Parliament reconvenes this week, health secretary Neil Gray may feel the post-holiday blues more keenly than most, following claims he was warned that NHS Fife may have acted illegally in a dispute over a transgender doctor using a female changing room.
Meanwhile, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar will address delegates at his party’s conference in Glasgow on Friday, as his ambitions of becoming Scotland’s next first minister appear to be slipping away. According to a new Norstat pollfor The Sunday Times, Labour is languishing at just 18% in voter support—leaving them tied with the Conservatives on a projected 18 seats each. The incumbent, John Swinney, remains on course for victory, with his party on track to secure 55 seats – casting doubt on Sarwar's earlier claims that “time is up for the SNP”.
The poll also indicates a surge for Reform UK, which is projected to win 15 seats at Holyrood. A spokesperson for the party warned that Scottish Labour must start taking them seriously, according to The Herald.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Business and trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the UK government may reinstate tariffs on US products such as whiskey, denim, and motorbikes, if US president Donald Trump imposes 25% import taxes on British steel and aluminium, according to the Financial Times (£).
The Scotsman (£) reports that Skyrora is constructing its first 23-meter XL rocket in Cumbernauld, aiming for a space launch by 2026. The company aspires to be among the first to launch from European soil at SaxaVord space port in Shetland, with test-firing scheduled for later this year.
Amid economic uncertainty and declining sentiment across the UK, confidence among Scotland’s small businesses has plunged to its lowest level since the height of the pandemic, dropping to -67.7 in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to new figures from the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB).
The Herald (£) reports that the UK Government has confirmed £2.6 million in funding for V&A Dundee to expand its Scottish Design Galleries, following a review of commitments made by the previous administration. This investment, alongside £20 million for Dundee regeneration projects, aims to boost economic growth, support jobs, and enhance the museum’s visitor experience ahead of its 10-year anniversary in 2028.
Daily Business has revealed a new celebrity backer of the recently opened surf resort, Lost Shore. Sir Sean Connery's son, Jason, has invested £1m in the venture, located to the west of Edinburgh.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
With allegations emerging of SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn’s supposed “boys brigade” and a female MSP “hit list”, The Scotsman’s (£) Alexander Brown contends that the SNP remains vulnerable despite John Swinney’s polling boost, with such claims exposing deepening divisions that could derail the party’s momentum.
Are European tech firms reluctant to embrace their roots? In The Spectator (£), Simon Hunt examines the case of a tech startup which, despite being founded in Germany, insisted on a Californian identity. He argues that the EU’s stringent AI regulations are stifling innovation and investment, putting Europe at risk of falling behind in the global AI race.
In this short video from The Economist, defence editor Shashank Joshi explores how Donald Trump’s stance threatens to undermine NATO’s mutual defence clause, challenging the foundation of the alliance itself. Is Europe capable of defending itself without America?
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Westminster is in recess until 24 February
- Sir Keir Starmer to make an announcement on health policies
- Ukraine: French president Emmanuel Macron to host Ukraine summit in Paris
- UK: Rightmove house price index
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber:
- Ministerial Statement: Community Wealth Building Progress and Future Ambitions
- Scottish Government Debate: Employer National Insurance Contributions
- In the Holyrood committee rooms:
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will take evidence on Stage 1 Land Reform (Scotland) Bill; take evidence from chair of Environmental Standards Scotland
- Finance and Public Administration Committee will take evidence on Scottish Government’s response to its Budget Scrutiny 2025-6; consider the Budget (Scotland) (No.4) Bill at Stage 2
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will take evidence from Scottish Women’s Budget Group, UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence. University of Glasgow, Chartered Institute of Taxation, Fraser of Allander Institute, and Institute of Fiscal Studies on Council Tax Inquiry
- Labour Market Trends, February 2025
- Evaluation of the National Drug Deaths Mission: Alcohol and Drug Partnership coordinator survey 2024, Release 20250218
- Scottish Government data:
- UK: Employment and wage statistics released
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber:
- Portfolio questions: Rural Affairs, Land Reforms and Islands
- Scottish Government Debate: Protecting the Powers of the Scottish Parliament
- Legislative Consent Motion: Renters’ Rights Bill – UK Legislation
- In the Holyrood committee rooms:
- Rural Affairs and Islands Committee will take evidence on the Rural Support (Improvement) (Miscellaneous Amendment) (Scotland) Regulations 2025
- Economy and Fair Work Committee will take evidence from the Federation of Small Businesses Scotland, Co-operatives UK, Prosper, and Social Enterprise Scotland on New Deal for Business
- Small Business Survey Scotland, 2023/2024
- UK House Price Index Scotland, UK House Price Index Scotland: December 2024
- Scottish Government data:
- UK: Inflation statistics, and OBR second Spring Forecast round
- US: Trump expected to attend Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative Institute summit in Miami
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber:
- First Minister’s questions
- Portfolio questions: Social Justice
- Scottish Government debate: Scottish Income Tax Rate Resolution 2025-6
Friday
- Scottish Labour conference begins
- UK: Public sector finance and retail sales statistics released