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John Cumming, client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.

Following last week’s Scottish budget, an opinion poll commissioned by The Sunday Times has put the SNP on course for a fifth term in power, with support for independence sitting at 54%, its highest level in four years. Shona Robison’s budget has been described by some as a political move to kick-start the SNP’s campaign for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, with a number of announcements she and John Swinney will be hoping appeal to voters and heap pressure on Scottish Labour. Discussions amongst senior Labour officials are already underway as how best to respond to a series of pledges made by the Scottish Government, such as a promise to mitigate the two-child benefits cap. And the latest poll paints a bleck picture for Anas Sarwar, with his party predicted to win just one more seat than the Scottish Conservatives. Key findings from the poll, carried out by Norstat, are set out in this week’s ‘shifting the dial’ section below.

The Times also published an exclusive interview with the prime minister over the weekend, following his visit to Edinburgh last week to attend the British-Irish Council. Keir Starmer said that the SNP can no longer use a lack of funding from Westminster as an excuse for poor delivery after his government delivered the largest funding settlement for Scotland since devolution.

Further afield, dramatic scenes unfolded this weekend with the ousting of Bashar al-Assad as Syria’s president. Assad, who ruled for 24 years, has fled to Moscow where he has been granted asylum by president Putin. His downfall is a major blow for Russia, questioning its military capability after it was unable to keep its strongest middle east ally in power.

In brief - Scotland's economy and business

Ian McConnell has a piece in The Herald this morning following the latest EY ITEM Club assessment of Scotland’s economy. McConnell notes that the report suggests Glasgow and Edinburgh will see stronger levels of economic growth than Aberdeen, largely because of the continued decline of oil and gas. Scotland’s rural and island communities were also found to have weaker growth prospects.

The Financial Times’ Scotland correspondent, Simeon Kerr, published an interesting piece over the weekend discussing the impact that climate change and the ongoing land reform debate are having on Scotland’s grouse shooting industry. Kerr notes that shooting supports 14,100 jobs in Scotland and contributes £760mn to the economy.

A dispute over a planned electrical substation near Beauly was the focus of a piece in The Scotsman yesterday. The paper’s Alison Campsie reported that Simon Fraser, 16th Lord Lovat, has allowed SSEN to assess a site for the Fanellan substation which would support new energy developments across the Highlands. The plans are opposed by some in the local area who have voiced concerns about the visual impact of new infrastructure.

Shifting the dial - recent research

Yesterday’s Sunday Times poll suggests that the Swinney-Forbes partnership is turning the SNP’s fortunes around, with the party on course for a comfortable victory at the 2026 Holyrood election. Here are some key findings from the poll:

  • 37% of voters would give the SNP their constituency vote if an election was held tomorrow, with Labour sitting at 21%. Analysis by Prof John Curtice found that this would see 59 SNP MSPs elected, with Scottish Labour returning only 20 MSPs.
  • A pro-independence majority would also be returned with the SNP and the Scottish Greens commanding a majority of three seats.
  • Reform continues to secure significant support, with 12% of voters backing Nigel Farage’s party. This would see 13 Reform MSPs elected.
  • Voters broadly support measures in the SNP budget, with 60% backing the government’s investment in affordable homes, 73% welcoming universal winter fuel support for the elderly and 53% supporting the increasing of basic and intermediate tax rates by 3.5%. The decision to mitigate the two-child benefit cap was slightly less popular, with only 38% supporting this move.

The week ahead - fill your diary with key events

Monday

  • Westminster
    • MPs to debate the remaining stages of Martyn’s Law, designed to ensure better preparedness for terrorist attacks
    • Home Office officials to appear before the home affairs select committee to discuss asylum accommodation
  • Starmer: The prime minister to visit the UAE and Saudia Arabia
  • Reeves: The chancellor is attending the EU finance ministers meeting in Brussels
  • Cooper: The home secretary to meet the French interior minister in Calais
  • FT: The Financial Times book of the year award winner to be announced

Tuesday

  • Holyrood:
    • Education secretary Jenny Gilruth to deliver a ministerial statement on the 2025 national improvement framework and long-term strategy for Scottish education
    • MSPs to debate the judicial factors bill
    • The Scottish Government will lead a debate on human rights
    • MSPs on the local government and housing committee will meet to discuss the UK Renters’ Rights Bill and the cladding remediation programme
    • Prof Graeme Roy, chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission, to appear before the finance and public administration committee
  • Westminster
  • Police chiefs to appear before the Home Affairs Select Committee to answer questions about their response to summer riots
  • Ministers to attend the business and trade committee meeting on UK arms exports to Israel
  • Israel: Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu testifies in corruption trial
  • Court: Pre-trial hearing for Prince Harry’s case against The Sun newspaper
  • Sweden: Nobel Prize for physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, and economic sciences to be awarded at a ceremony in Stockholm

Wednesday

  • Holyrood
    • Deputy first minister Kate Forbes and finance secretary Shona Robison to take questions in the chamber
    • The Scottish Conservatives will lead a debate on finance and local government
    • The economy and fair work committee will meet to discuss city region deals
  • Westminster
  • PMQs
  • Wales questions
  • Lords to debate the hereditary peers reform bill
  • Health committee to discuss the NHS 10-year plan
  • Food and rural affairs committee to discuss inheritance tax changes
  • Football: 2034 World Cup hosts announced
  • Switzerland: parliament to elect a new president

Thursday

  • Holyrood:
    • FMQs
    • Net zero, energy and transport questions
    • The health, social care and sport committee to lead a debate on remote and rural healthcare
  • Westminster
  • Questions to the leader of the house of commons
  • Business and trade questions
  • DESNZ officials to appear before the public accounts committee to discuss carbon capture and storage
  • Southport: Axel Rudakubana to appear in court over Southport stabbings
  • Italy: Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas begins two-day visit to Rome, where he will meet Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Francis

Friday

  • UK GDP monthly estimate

Saturday

  • Georgia: Presidential election

Sunday

  • Trade: UK officially joins the trans-Pacific trading block (CPTPP)