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Rebecca Mason, associate, looks at the top stories from the week ahead.

It has been nearly four months since Rishi Sunak announced he was resigning as the Conservative Party leader, and at the weekend we finally found out his replacement. Kemi Badenoch made history as she was confirmed as his successor becoming the first Black woman to lead a major political party in the UK.

Badenoch secured victory over opponent Robert Jenrick, winning 53,806 votes to 41,388, with all eyes on who will fill her shadow cabinet.

Hitting the airwaves yesterday morning, Badenoch appeared to accept the challenges which now face her as she looks to unite her party following a brutal election general election. Speaking to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, she said the Conservatives had “got a lot of things wrong” in recent years, noting immigration and tax. But Badenoch said the controversies which had plagued the Conservatives, including Partygate, were "overblown”.

As Westminster continues to pour over the details of the Labour government’s budget from last week, attention now turns to the Scottish Government with finance secretary Shona Robison to deliver her fiscal plans on December 4. According to The Herald, public finance minister Ivan McKee has indicated that tax hikes are unlikely north of the border.

Finally, the long-anticipated showdown is set for Tuesday as Americans head to the polls to select their next president. However, confidence is waning as the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tightens. The Selzer poll carried out for Des Moines Register newspaper sent shockwaves through the political landscape, revealing Iowa as an unexpected lead for Harris in what was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans, following victories in 2016 and 2020. The outcome in Iowa could be pivotal, with potential to set the tone result ahead.


In brief - Scotland's economy and business

The Scotsman (£) reported that the SNP is under fire for cutting adviser jobs to their flagship green heating services. Reduced support for the advice service, which acts as a gateway to loans and grants available for Scots to install heat pumps and other renewable heating systems, could undermine Scotland’s net-zero transition and exacerbate fuel poverty during winter, it warns.

As Labour looks to ‘cut costs for taxpayers’ and collaborate with the offshore sector, oil and gas companies have confirmed the development of an AI platform to reduce decommissioning costs by up to 35%, according to The Times (£). The platform could potentially save the UK Treasury over £8bn, energy companies a further £2bn, while aiding further investment in the North Sea.

Daily Business reported that Scotland has surpassed its target of 6,000 public EV charging points two years early, supported by a £6.3 million investment and strong public-private sector collaboration. The Scottish Government plans to add 24,000 more public chargers by 2030, aiming to make sustainable travel widely accessible and advance net-zero goals.


OpinioNation - columns of interest

Writing in The Financial Times (£), prime minister Keir Starmeroutlines a growth strategy focused on political stability, public service reform, and private sector collaboration. Reflecting on the Autumn Budget, Starmer emphasised fiscal stability and technology incentives as catalysts for a decade of renewal.

Kevin McKenna criticises in The Herald (£) the intimidation faced by women in Scotland who challenge gender self-ID policies, highlighting poet Jenny Lindsay's experiences and the harassment of deputy first minister Kate Forbes. He condemns the lack of support from political leaders and calls for stronger protections for women against workplace bullying in Scottish politics.

Andrew Rawnsley argues in The Guardian that Kemi Badenoch’s weak Tory leadership victory, marked by tepid support from party members and MPs, leaves her on uncertain ground. To rebuild trust with voters, she must distance the party from past failures and apologise sincerely—a task she has yet to embrace.


Shifting the dial - recent research

Following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s budget announcement on Wednesday, a new Norstat poll indicates a sharp decline in Labour’s support in Scotland, with many voters concerned it will negatively impact their finances and the country’s welfare. Labour now sits at 23% in Scottish parliamentary constituencies and 22% on the regional list, a drop of seven and six points respectively since August, marking its lowest level since Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation. If these results are to hold for the 2026 Holyrood election, the poll suggests it could make it nearly impossible for Anas Sarwar to lead a Labour government in Scotland.

The same survey also reveals that while the SNP has failed to gain from Labour’s recent struggles, they hold steady at 33% in constituency votes and edging up by one point to 29% on the regional list. A projected outcome of 51 MSPs would likely enable John Swinney to remain as first minister, despite a loss of 13 seats compared to the 2021 election.


The week ahead - fill your diary with key events

Monday

  • Westminster
    • Debate: Continuation of the Budget Debate
    • Foreign Affairs Committee – private meeting
  • US: Kamala Harris campaigns in Pennsylvania on last day of campaigning. 
  • US: Donald Trump expected in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan. 

Tuesday

  • In the Holyrood chamber
    • Stage 3 Proceedings: Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Bill
  • In the Holyrood committee rooms
  • Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will consider a draft Stage 1 report of Housing (Scotland) Bill (in private); pre-budget scrutiny 2025-2026
  • Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will take evidence on the Land Reform (Scotland) Bill at Stage 1; appointments to the Board of the Scottish Land Commission; pre-budget scrutiny 2025-2026
  • Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee will consider a draft Stage 1 report on Disability Commissioner (Scotland) Bill (in private); pre-budget scrutiny 2025-2-26 (in private)
  • Health, Social Care and Sport Committee will take evidence on the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill at Stage 1
  • Finance and Public Administration Committee will undertake pre-budget scrutiny 2025-2026
  • Scottish Welfare Fund: monthly management information
  • Discretionary Housing Payments: monthly official statistics; updated to September 2024
  • Modern Apprenticeship Statistics 2024-2025 Q2
  • Oral Questions: Justice
  • Debate: Continuation of the Budget Debate
  • Westminster Hall debate: Government support for Scotland’s architectural heritage
  • General Committee debates: Renters’ Rights Bill
  • Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Meeting
  • Scottish Affairs Committee Meeting
  • Treasury Committee Meeting
  • Scottish Government data
  • Westminster
  • US: Presidential election.
  • UK: Guy Fawkes Night

Wednesday

  • In the Holyrood chamber
    • Portfolio Questions: Rural Affairs, Land Reform and Islands; Health and Social Care
    • Scottish Government Debate: Keeping the Promise
  • In the Holyrood committee rooms
  • Economy and Fair Work Committee will consider its approach to scrutiny of the Product Regulation and Metrology Bill (UK Parliament legislation) (in private); pre-budget scrutiny 2025-2026
  • Prime Minister’s Questions
  • Debate: Conclusion of Budget debate
  • Westminster Hall debate: Government policies on tackling fuel poverty; Potential merits of energy rebates for the Highlands and Islands
  • Health and Social Care Committee Meeting
  • Transport Committee Meeting
  • Treasury Committee: Oral Evidence Budget 2024
  • Westminster
  • US: Presidential election results continue to come in
  • UK: Former minister Kevin Hollinrake gives evidence at Post Office Horizon Inquiry 

Thursday

  • In the Holyrood Chamber
    • General Questions
    • First Minister’s Questions
    • Portfolio Questions: Social Justice
    • Scottish Government Debate: Brexit Impacts on Scotland’s Rural Economy
  • Westminster is in recess until 11 November
  • UK: Bank of England interest rate decision
  • UK: Halifax UK house price index
  • EU: Keir Starmer attends European Political Community in Hungary
  • US: Interest rate decision from U.S. Federal Reserve

Friday

  • Westminster is in recess until 11 November
  • UK: GDP data released
  • US: Michigan consumer sentiment index for November

Sunday

  • UK: Remembrance Sunday