The general election campaign continues with all the major political parties now firmly on the campaign trail. In Scotland, first minister John Swinney launched (or should that be re-launched?) the SNP’s campaign in Glasgow yesterday, promising to “put Scotland’s interests first” and criticising Labour’s “creeping privatisation of the NHS” and what he called “serial U-turns”. This comes after the Mail on Sundayrevealed in an interview with Swinney that the SNP is reviewing its policy on oil and gas field licences.
Putting somewhat of a dampener on the (re-)launch proceedings, The Sunday Times reported the SNP is to hand back £450 million of EU money - 28% of its European structural and investment funding - which was to be spent on anti-poverty and economic projects. Critics have accused SNP ministers of “negligence on a remarkable scale”.
The political contest gathers pace this week as the election’s TV debates commence, beginning with the Scottish party leaders’ debate on STV, where Swinney will face Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar, Scottish Lib Dem Alex Cole-Hamilton and Scottish Conservative Douglas Ross. A head-to-head debate between prime minister Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer follows on Tuesday. In anticipation, former Downing Street director of communications, Craig Oliver, has given his insider scoop on TV debates and how to win one. It’s worth a read.
Further afield, voting begins for the European Parliament elections on Thursday and continues until Sunday, with a record number of young right-wing representatives expected to head to the polls.
India’s general election comes to a close this week with incumbent Narendra Modi set to achieve a decisive win according to exit polls – securing his third five-year term.
And in case you missed them, we’ve two View from the Streets to share from last week. Associate partner Anna Dickens discussed the Conservative Party’s election pledge to cut one in eight university places, arguing the true value of university education is difficult to measure. Partner Tom Gillingham analysed the latest on the Labour Party’s GB Energy plans.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
- Daily Business reported that, based on the CBI’s latest growth indicator, private sector growth is expected to grow over the next three months, with activity stabilising in the three months to May.
- Insider reported that NatWest has announced its latest accelerator programme with 2,500 places available for entrepreneurs this September.
- Business figures Sir Tom Hunter and Lord Willie Haughey have highlighted a “sharp drop” in North Sea production and exploration, The Herald (£) reports, as investors “await the outcome of the election on July 4”.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
- Alf Young in The Sunday Times (£) makes the case for Scottish state-owned commercial assets to have an exit strategy. He analyses the cases of Prestwick Airport, Ferguson Marine, the Lochaber aluminium smelter and Bifab, and their consequences for the Scottish economy and government.
- Former civil servant Sarah Davidson in an interview with The Herald on Sunday (£) discussed where the Scottish Government has gone wrong in terms of Scottish citizens’ wellbeing, which, she adds, is about much more than GDP.
- A rock a day keeps the doctor away: John Naughton discusses Google’s AI overviews and the impact of the answerbot on the link economy and traditional search engines in The Guardian.
- Late-life restraint or recklessness? Janan Ganesh in The Financial Times (£) argues for adjusting the equation that correlates older age with conformism, which “ignores a world that is being turned upside down by those who aren’t long for it”.
Shifting the dial - recent research
A new poll by Savanta for The Scotsman showed almost three fifths of Scots believe the case for Scottish independence has not strengthened since the 2014 referendum. It found the level of support for independence remains split – 52% favour remaining in the UK while 48% would vote for leaving, which excludes don’t knows.
While 25% of Scots reported Scottish independence to be in their top five priorities at the general election, it is seen as less important than the economy (66%), inflation and the cost-of-living crisis (71%), the NHS (77%), as well as immigration, housing, climate change, and education.
Reform Scotland published a paper on the risks posed by the significant decline in computing science in schools to Scotland’s future economy. Using data from Scotland’s 32 local authorities, Reform found that one in eight secondary pupils attend a secondary school with no qualified computing science teacher – rising to around 50% in rural areas.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Stage 1 Debate: Social Security (Amendment) (Scotland) Bill
- Scottish Government Debate: A Vision for Health and Social Care in Scotland
- Ministerial Statement: Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan – Annual Progress Report 2023-24
- Members’ Business: Child Safety Week 2024 (Clare Adamson, SNP, Motherwell and Wishaw)
- In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Net Zero Energy and Transport Committee will consider the Land Reform (Scotland) Bill
- Finance and Public Administration Committee will take evidence on Scotland’s Commissioner Landscape: A Strategic Approach
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will take evidence on the Housing (Scotland) Bill at Stage 1
- Delegated Powers and Law Reform Committee will consider instruments subject to affirmative procedure: Civic Government (Scotland) Act 1982 (Licensing of Short-term Lets) Amendment Order 2024 (SSI 2024/Draft) and Early Release of Prisoners and Prescribed Victim Supporters (Scotland) Regulations 2024 (SSI 2024/Draft)
- Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee will take evidence on the Disability Commissioner (Scotland) Bill at Stage 1
- Audit of Trauma Management in Scotland (Paediatric) May 2024, Immunisation and vaccine-preventable diseases quarterly updates, NHS Scotland workforce June 2024
- Scottish Government data
- UK: Labour’s National Executive Committee approves its full list of candidates
- India: Vote counting begins for the country’s general election
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio Questions: Constitution, External Affairs and Culture, and Parliamentary Business, Justice and Home Affairs
- Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party Debate: Transport
- Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party Debate: Net Zero and Energy
- Members' Business: 40th Anniversary of Volunteers’ Week (Kevin Stewart, SNP, Aberdeen Central)
- In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Economy and Fair Work Committee will take evidence on the Disability Employment Gap
- Criminal Justice Committee will take evidence on the emergency release of prisoners and other key challenges in Scotland’s prisons
- UK: Sunak to lead the commemoration marking 80 years since D-Day on Southsea Common, King Charles banknotes to enter circulation, Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething faces vote of no confidence
- Russia: St Petersburg International Economic Forum
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- General Questions
- First Minister’s Questions
- Portfolio Questions: Education and Skills
- Stage 3 Proceedings: Bankruptcy and Diligence (Scotland) Bill
- Members' Business: Permanently Ending Peak Rail Fares on ScotRail (Mark Ruskell, Green, Mid Scotland and Fife)
- UK: Sunak to attend the D-Day commemorations at the British Normandy Memorial in France with King Charles and Queen Camilla
- EU: Voting for European Parliament elections begin and continues until Sunday
- Europe: European Central Bank’s interest rate decision
Friday
- UK: Deadline for general election candidates to be nominated, first UK show for Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in Edinburgh
- Ireland: Local elections
Saturday
- Italy: First round of municipal elections
Sunday
- Belgium: Parliamentary and regional elections
- Germany: Municipal elections in various states