Aoife Hollywood, client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
This week will be all about the three Ts – trade, tariffs and talks.
Today, Sir Keir Starmer will meet with leaders from all 27 EU member states and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte to talk about strengthening UK-EU defence and security ties, resetting UK-EU relations, as well as reducing trade barriers. This is the first such gathering since Brexit five years ago.
Ahead of the talks, US president Donald Trump hinted the EU may be the next to face tariffs. He also said that something could be worked out with the UK, despite the country being “out of line”. This is just the latest rhetoric in escalating global tensions over the president’s actions. Both Canadian and Mexican leaders have respond to president Donald Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs with more tariffs.
Back in the UK, public services are facing scrutiny. Gareth Davies, head of the National Audit Office, says they’re “not good enough and cost too much”. He warned that current levels of spending on health, education, and transport are unsustainable and must undergo significant reform. He urged the government to be willing to take risks with new approaches to service delivery and promised the spending watchdog wouldn’t come down like a “ton of bricks” on ideas that fail to work.
In response to the stagnating economy, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is also expected to cut interest rates (£) by a quarter point to 4.50%. Financial markets have been betting on a Thursday intervention, but deliberations this week may be complicated by the prospect in a resurgence of inflation and the impending global trade war.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
The Labour government is considering a radical pricing overhaul that could lower energy bills for Scots by introducing a zonal pricing system, benefiting from Scotland’s renewable energy resources. However, energy companies warn that such a change could disrupt vital investments in the renewables sector and hinder long-term economic growth in Scotland.
Calls have been made to review a tax relief scheme after Rockstar North, the Dundee-founded studio behind Grand Theft Auto, claimed over £73 million in relief last year while distributing £132 million in dividends. Although there’s no suggestion that Rockstar’s use of the scheme is illegal, campaigners argue that the Video Games Tax Relief was never meant for highly profitable multinational studios like Rockstar and are calling for reform.
John Swinney has criticised Lloyds Banking Group for "failing" Scottish communities as bank closures loom. The group revealed plans to shut 14 Bank of Scotland branches across Scotland between May 2025 and 2026, following the closure of 45 branches last year. In response, First Minister Swinney and five other SNP MSPs are calling for a meeting with the bank's CEO, Charlie Nunn.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
Jemima Kelly explores a cultural shift where being “woke” is now considered too mainstream, especially among younger generations, and considers how this change is influencing politics. In her piece for The Financial Times (£), Kelly discusses the rise of a more rebellious cultural ethos, characterised by a rejection of virtue-signalling and the resurgence of right-wing figures like Donald Trump.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp’s call for Britain to "up its game" and work harder misses the mark, argues Charlotte Ivers in her piece for The Sunday Times (£). Ivers writes that with high youth unemployment, stagnant wages, and unaffordable housing, the incentives to work in the UK are weakening, and many young people are seeking better opportunities abroad instead.
Reflecting on a poll conducted for The Herald this weekend – which predicts the SNP to be the biggest party after the next election – Rebecca McCurdy explores the uncertain future facing the Scottish Conservatives, with 25% of their support shifting to Reform UK. She highlights the growing threat of defections and argues that the party is at serious risk of being undermined by Nigel Farage’s growing influence.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Work and Pensions
- Second Reading: Public Authorities (Fraud, Error and Recovery) Bill
- Public Accounts Committee: Oral evidence on the remediation of dangerous cladding
- Scottish Government data
- Registers of Scotland Quarterly House Price Statistics, Quarter 3: October - December 2024
- Sir Keir Starmer attends informal EU leaders’ meeting in Brussels
- Negotiations due to begin on second phase of Israel-Hamas agreement
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Stage 1 Debate: Budget (Scotland) (No. 4) Bill
- Members’ Business – Christine Grahame: The Lockerbie Bombing, A Father’s Search for Justice
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will take evidence on the Local government in Scotland: Financial bulletin 2023/24 and will consider the following instrument – Building (Fees (Scotland) Amendment Regulations
- Health, Social Care and Sport Committee will take evidence on the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland Bill), including from Liam McArthur, member in charge of the Bill
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will take evidence on the Land Reform (Scotland) Bil at Stage 1 and will consider a draft report on the Great British Energy Bill (UK Parliament legislation)
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Scottish Government data
- Scottish Local Government Finance Statistics, 2023-24
- Westminster
- Oral questions: Energy Security and Net Zero
- Westminster Hall Debate: UK-US bilateral relationship
- Westminster Hall Debate: Government policy on children in care
- Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee: Oral evidence on animal and plant health
- Industry and Regulators Committee: Oral evidence on the energy grid and grid connections
- Business and Trade Committee: Oral evidence on Rip-off Britian - Dynamic pricing and consumer protection
- Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu meeting expected in Washington DC
- UK: Kantar’s February grocery market share and price inflation report
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio questions: Deputy First Minister Responsibilities, Economy and Gaelic: Finance and Local Government
- Ministerial Statement: Implementing the Medication Assisted Treatment Standards
- Scottish Government: Addressing Child Poverty Through Education
- Members’ business – Mark Ruskell: Save Local Libraries
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Rural Affairs and the Islands Committee will take evidence on the Inshore Fisheries Management Improvement Programme
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Scottish Government data
- Homelessness Statistics, Homelessness in Scotland: update to 30 September 2024
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Westminster
- Prime Minister's Question Time
- Oral questions: Women and Equalities
- Westminster Hall Debate: Closure of high street services in rural areas
- Scottish Affairs Committee: oral evidence on Scotland’s space sector follow-up: launch
- Environmental Audit Committee: oral evidence on environmental sustainability and housing growth
- House of Lords Debate: Contribution of the creative industries to the government’s growth mission and to creating jobs and productivity growth
- FT International Energy Policy Forum 2025
- China: financial markets reopen after the lunar new year holiday
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions
- Members’ Business – Elena Whitham: Report on Alcohol Use Disorder in the Justice System
- Portfolio questions: Net Zero and Energy, and Transport
- Ministerial Statement: Simplifying the Post-School Education and Skills Funding Body Landscape in Scotland
- Scottish Government Debate: Improving Miscarriage Care
- Legislative Consent Motion: Great British Energy Bill – UK Legislation
- Scottish Government data
- Scotland's Labour Market Insights, January 2025
- Oral questions: Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
- Westminster
- UK: Interest rate decision
- UK: BoE monetary policy report
- New York Fashion Week begins
Friday
- UK: Halifax January House Price Index
Saturday
- Hostages released under Israel-Hamas agreement
Sunday
- Ecuador's presidential and parliamentary elections
- Parliamentary elections in Kosovo and Lichtenstein
- Super Bowl LIX featuring the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. Kendrick Lamar will perform the halftime show