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Deviance

Sophie Taylor, associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.

December's here and it's now officially acceptable to put up your Christmas decorations, but the political sphere is showing no signs of winding down for the festive season just yet.

Finance secretary Shona Robison is instead focused on unwrapping the Scottish Government’s 2025-26 budget on Wednesday. Robison will unveil her plans to create “more and better jobs” and “put more money in people’s pockets”. Reports ofdeal negotiations between the SNP and other parties (£), in return for support of the budget, were revealed over the weekend.

South of the border, it’s all eyes on the prime minister this week. He presents his annual Mansion House speech on foreign policy at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in London today, before trying to construct a more positive political narrative than of late with his ‘Plan for Change’ speech (£) on Thursday – which may or may not be a Labour "reset" depending on who you believe. Described as no less than “the most ambitious yet honest delivery plan in a generation” by Keir Starmer, the strategy will assign measurable targets to the government’s five missions. Leading pollster Sir John Curtice has, however, cast doubt over Starmer’s ability to convince the public that brighter days are on the horizon.

Counting continues today to determine the result of the Irish general election, with the return of the incumbent coalition involving Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael looking most likely. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out partnering with Sinn Féin, the third major party, which has recorded its first decline in support in 35 years.

In brief - Scotland's economy and business

Despite government calls to cease trading with Russia, Scottish company Campbell Meyer & Co has agreed to make bulk shipments of Glendale (£), a Scotch brand, to be bottled near Moscow.

Offshore wind farm crane firm, Sarens PSG, will establish a £1.6 million “centre of excellence” for its crane fleet in Aberdeen, creating 25 jobs and growing the area’s heavy lifting and engineered transport capabilities. Its choice of location was influenced by GB Energy.

Business confidence in Scotland fell by 13 points during November to 31%, declining at a much faster pace than in the UK as a whole, according to the latest business barometer from the Bank of Scotland.

The number of candidates completing chartered financial analysis exams is in decline (£), the latest available results for CFA Institute showed. Last year there were 163,000 exam registrations, which is down 40% from a peak of 270,456 in 2019.

OpinioNation - columns of interest

Jeremy Grant argued in The Scotsman that strengthening Scotland’s relationship with Singapore is a welcome move, but warned that the UK government’s new ‘Brand Scotland’ campaign must be careful and strategic in its choice of international partners (£), particularly when considering involvement in offshore wind assets.

Andrew Rawnsley in The Observer details what we can expect in Starmer's 'Plan for Change' (£), the thinking behind the new strategy, and why it is aimed at the civil service as well as the British public. 

Ahead of Shona Robison’s budget, Alex Massie offered his view on the Scottish Government’s spending approach (£) in The Sunday Times, positing that good politics does not necessarily translate into good policies that foster growth. 

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The week ahead - fill your diary with key events

Monday
  • Westminster
    • Commons oral questions: Housing, Communities and Local Government
    • Commons general debate: Grenfell Tower Inquiry Phase 2 Report
    • Lords legislation: Listed Investment Companies (Classification etc) Bill, committee stage
    • Lords orders and regulations: Contracts for Difference (Miscellaneous Amendments) Regulations 2024
    • Lords orders and regulations Financial Services and Markets Act 2023 (Addition of Relevant Enactments) Regulations 2024
    • First Delegated Legislation Committee debate: The draft Scottish Rates of Income Tax (Consequential Amendments) Order 2024
  • Scottish Government data
  • Scottish Household Survey 2023
  • UK: Keir Starmer gives annual foreign policy speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet, Liz Truss gives a speech to the U.S. Heritage Foundation, England’s building safety levy expected to be revealed this week
  • US: deadline for Donald Trump to file a motion to dismiss his hush money case
  • Cyber Monday
  • Reports: Nationwide November House Price Index

Tuesday

  • In the Holyrood chamber
    • Stage 3 Proceedings: Social Security (Amendment) (Scotland) Bill
  • In the Holyrood committee rooms
    • The Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will take evidence on the Scrutiny of the Scottish Housing Regulator
    • The Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will take evidence on the Land Reform (Scotland) Bill at Stage 1
    • The Finance and Public Administration Committee will take evidence on Budget Scrutiny 2025-26
    • The Delegated Powers and Law Reform Committee will consider the Scottish Elections (Representation and Reform) Bill
  • Westminster
  • Commons legislation: National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill, second reading
  • Lords oral questions: Ensuring proposed planning reforms contribute to the delivery of net zero carbon emissions
  • Lords oral questions: Arrangements in place to protect undersea fibre optic cables serving the United Kingdom
  • Lords legislation: GB Energy Bill, committee stage (day 1)
  • Lords legislation: Data (Use and Access) Bill, committee stage (day 1)
  • Third Delegated Legislation Committee debate: Draft Contracts for Difference (Miscellaneous Amendments) Regulations 2024
  • General Committee debate: Employment Rights Bill
  •  Scottish Government data
    •  Scottish Public Health Observatory update
    •  Care Home Services 2023/24
  •  UK: FT Global Banking Summit
  •  Belgium: NATO foreign ministers meet in Brussels
  •  UN: The General Assembly meets on Gaza

Wednesday

  • In the Holyrood chamber
    • Ministerial statement: Scottish Budget 2025-26
  • In the Holyrood committee rooms
  • The Economy and Fair Work Committee will take evidence on City Region and Regional Growth Deals
  • The Criminal Justice Committee will take evidence on the Scottish Government’s intentions in relation to Stage 2 of the Victims, Witnesses, and Justice Reform (Scotland) Bill
  • Commons oral questions: Scotland
  • Commons: Prime minister’s question time
  • Westminster Hall debate: Future of farming
  • Scottish Affairs Committee oral evidence: Salmon farming – growth and sustainability
  • Energy Security and Net Zero Committee oral evidence: Retrofitting homes for net zero
  • Scottish Prison Population Statistics 2023-24
  • Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics, 2023
  • Westminster
  • Scottish Government data
  • UK: Guardian and Observer staff 48-hour walkout, City minister and economic secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq and Chinese ambassador to the UK Zeguang Zheng speak at the OMFIF China-UK Investor forum
  • Reports: OECD Economic Outlook

Thursday

  • In the Holyrood chamber
    • First minister’s questions
    • Scottish Government debate: Support for the Veteran and Armed Forces Community in Scotland
    • Scottish Government debate: Empowering Young People’s Voices in Tackling Violence Against Women and Girls
  • Westminster
  • Commons: Business statement
  • Lords oral questions: Increasing productivity in the UK economy
  • Lords oral questions: Discussions with regional mayors in England on government housebuilding targets
  • Lords debate: Increasing housing supply and tackling homelessness
  • General Committee debate: Employment Rights Bill
  • UK: Keir Starmer to give his Plan for Change speech
  • US: House hearing on Trump assassination

Friday

  • Westminster
    • Commons private members’ bills: European Union (Withdrawal Arrangements) Bill, second reading
  • Reports: US unemployment figures, EU Q3 GDP estimate

Saturday

  • France: President Emmanuel Macron hosts Notre-Dame Cathedral’s official inauguration ceremony in Paris, ahead of Sunday’s public reopening

Sunday

  • Romania: Presidential election run-off