There does seem to be an air of change in the Bay. Three more Labour AMs have announced their intention to stand down at the next election, including the powerful Economy Minister, Edwina Hart. Whilst politics moves on, a number of major infrastructure projects she has championed now look a little less likely, particularly if Welsh Labour have to negotiate a coalition in May.
At the Assembly, Public Services Minister Leighton Andrews continues to grapple with criticism over his plans to reorganise local government in Wales from 22 unitary authorities to 8. The three opposition parties look set to oppose the reforms, which seem difficult to achieve in minority government, and will make for interesting coalition discussions if such a scenario emerges after the election in 2016.
With this challenge in mind, First Minister Carwyn Jones is about to embark on a number of different party and public meetings across Wales. He begins a tour of the nation as First Minister, with plans to reach out to the public in town-hall meetings, with the conveniently alliterative title ‘Carwyn Connect’.
At the same time, he is meeting Labour members and community groups in a series of open Q&A sessions designed to develop new ideas for the Welsh Labour manifesto for May 2016. He has appointed energetic Deputy Minister Ken Skates to draft the manifesto. At the same time, he as asked his friend Huw Irranca Davies MP to oversee the Assembly election campaign over the next 12 months.
In other political news, UKIP announced that former Conservative and UKIP MP Mark Reckless has been tasked with the job of developing their manifesto ahead of the Assembly election. Sam Gould has been appointed Campaign Manager, while Nathan Gill MEP will continue to provide overarching leadership in Wales. UKIP know that the electoral system for the Assembly favours them, and they overtook Plaid Cymru as the third party in Wales at the General Election, so we are likely to have between 3 and 8 UKIP AMs here next year.
A cut in the number of Welsh parliamentary constituencies could be on the way as Prime Minister David Cameron has reiterated his pledge to reduce the total number of MPs. This proposal has of course spooked Welsh MPs, who may reduce in number from 40 to 29, but will also have implications for how the Assembly elects AMs in future. In addition, Welsh MPs are highly exercised by the "English votes for English laws" proposals. Even following devolution, many would argue that very few laws only affect England, but the reality of course is the Welsh MPs do not want to become “second-class” MPs in parliament.