As Westminster returns from its conference break, a cruel by-election wind blows for the Tories...read all about it in this week's Who's Top Who's Not!
Flying high: Alistair Strathern and Sarah Edwards
At what point does a pattern become a trend? We’re rapidly running out of superlatives for Labour’s 2023 by-election performances as Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth become the latest rock-solid Tory seats to fall to the Opposition.
Whichever way you cut it, these were horrendous defeats for the Tories who should be defending these sort of seats very comfortably. The results also seem to support Labour’s consistent polling lead, suggesting that Labour are on course to secure a majority at the next general election.
Ironically, the only Tory individual wo can take any solace from these mammoth defeats is the defeated Tory candidate in Mid-Bedfordshire, Festus Akinbusoye , who is highly likely to win the seat at the second time of asking at next year’s general election (the defeated Tory candidate in Tamworth, Andrew Cooper, is likely to be replaced by Eddie Hughes, current MP for Walsall North).
By-elections are always different to general elections and Labour’s local Bedfordshire resources are likely to be spread further afield in regional target seats such as Milton Keynes and Northampton, but Labour HQ will still be popping the champagne corks that these results further reinforces their hope of Starmer soon being in No.10.
Middle of the road: Rachel Reeves
After a triumphant speech at conference, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves is back to the grind of continuing to repair Labour’s economic reputation.
Reeves has been under pressure from union leaders this week to raise more revenue to spend on public services by increasing taxes on wealth, such as capital gains. It is the eternal struggle of Labour shadow chancellors to balance the requests of colleagues who want to spend on expensive policy commitments with the need to appear responsible with the nation’s finances in the face of inevitable Tory attacks.
Reeves has done an admirable job of keeping that balance so far – hence the excellent support from the business community at conference – but she will face even more political pressure next year from both Labour colleagues who want to commit to eye-catching policy announcements and from Tory opponents who will slice and dice Labour’s books to show they still can’t be trusted with the nation’s finances.
Slowly sinking: Jeremy Hunt
Jeremy Hunt has earned grudging kudos in the Westminster village for turning around the worst of the economic face plant that was the Liz Truss premiership. But both Labour and Truss’s acolytes in the Tufton Street mafia are united in highlighting the ongoing problem of stubbornly high inflation.
Tackling inflation rightly remains this government’s top priority but the electorate rarely gives points for trying; they need results. With tens of thousands of families remortgaging their homes at huge interest rates every month, with rents increasing, and with the price of the weekly shop still climbing, tackling inflation is the entire electoral ball game for this government’s hopes of remaining in office.
Not only do the British public need to see that the economy is improving; they also need to feel that it is improving for them as well. No amount of culture wars or smoking bans is going to help the Tories if interest rates and inflation remain high.