As 2015 drew to a close there was much reflection on the year’s best performers. Certainly, there were a number of casualties; Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg are still licking their wounds. With some of the UK’s biggest political heavyweights getting their gloves back on for another year of sparring, JBP looks ahead at this year’s prize fights.
Cameron vs Corbyn
There can be no denying that 2015 was a good year for David Cameron. An election that looked set to go down to the wire, with another coalition seemingly likely, delivered a surprise majority for the Tories (albeit a small one). Cameron can now enjoy a second term as Prime Minister, one that will be all the sweeter without having to share office with those pesky Lib Dems. Indeed, he has made a strong start to this parliamentary session: an unexpectedly moderate and widely acclaimed Budget was set out by the Chancellor and the subsequent Spending Review did much to appease the public on sensitive issues such as tax credits and police funding.
Jeremy Corbyn, despite winning by a landslide in Labour’s leadership election, may not be feeling so upbeat. Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell’s ‘Mao moment’ in response to the Spending Review did nothing to ease the public’s concerns about Corbyn’s Marx-influenced ideology; failure to apply the party whip on the controversial Syria vote exposed the deep divisions on defence and foreign policy in the shadow cabinet; and a petty, drawn out reshuffle (including three resignations) was a clear sign that Corbyn faces an uphill battle in trying to maintain control of his own MPs.
The real battle may therefore not be between Corbyn and Cameron, but rather Corbyn and his own party.
Khan vs Goldsmith
The New Year brings with it an intensification of the biggest showdown in the capital – Khan (Lab) vs. Goldsmith (Con). The candidates running for mayor will be vying for the trust of London voters on who can best represent the capital. This week alone controversy has been rife, with Goldsmith accusing Khan of “playing the race card” by picking up on Goldsmith’s use of the word ‘radical’.
For Londoners, the two key battle areas look set to be housing and transport. Both candidates are pledging to tackle the housing crisis in London, with Khan promising 50 per cent more affordable homes. Goldsmith, meanwhile, has already made an amendment to the Prime Minister’s Housing Bill guaranteeing that two “affordable homes” will be built in London for each council house sold. In terms of transport, Khan has promised to freeze TfL fares, whereas Goldsmith’s focus is on greener transport.
Khan has reason to feel confident about his position, with London seen as a predominately Labour city, and he has a comfortable 7 point lead over his rival according to a YouGov poll this week. However, the Conservatives believe that all is still to play for and certainly Goldsmith’s green credentials will go down well in many areas of London – not least Heathrow.
In vs Out of Europe
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From ‘Students for Britain’ infiltrating the CBI conference to the Ashcroft poll revealing that a large proportion of voters remain undecided, the referendum was hotly debated in 2015 and this looks set to continue through 2016.
David Cameron has already told ministers that they can campaign for either side and it looks as though Jeremy Corbyn will follow suit (despite being somewhat Eurosceptic himself).
With the weight of the debate already affecting investor confidence in the UK, ongoing pressure from big business for the UK to stay in Europe could prove to be the deciding factor in a victory for the ‘In’ campaign. However, if media rhetoric about soaring immigration and the EU continues to stir xenophobic sentiment amongst the British public, the vote may well come down to the wire.
The rumour mill has been tirelessly churning out expected dates for the referendum – recent reports indicate that it could take place as early as this year if Cameron’s EU treaty negotiations are successful.
George vs Boris vs Theresa
Throughout last year, Conservative Home’s own polling of Conservative members was fairly consistent; Mayor of London Boris Johnson vied with Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne as favourite to be the next Tory leader, with Home Secretary Teresa May slowly replacing Business Secretary Sajid Javid as the clear third choice.
However, the new year has brought with it new challengers. Only ever previously polling at fourth at best, and usually sitting in fifth, former Defence Secretary Liam Fox has surged ahead in the polls to second, while Osborne and Johnson have suffered. This is all good news for Theresa May, of course, who will know that Osborne has built up a solid base of support within the party, and who will want to start consolidating herself as a front-runner.
Osborne’s fortunes arguably lie on how the economy performs over the coming years. He has certainly profited politically already from public perception that the Conservatives ‘steadied the ship’ after reckless spending under New Labour. This is perhaps why he is trying to play down expectations; this week he warned of a “cocktail of risks” for the UK economy and that 2016 could mark “the beginning of the decline”.
Expect much political jostling throughout 2016. With other senior cabinet ministers also interested in the Tory leadership, including Education Secretary Nicky Morgan and Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, anything could happen.