Mhairi Black packs a punch at this week's PMQs as Sunak continues to be plagued by the ghost of Boris past, present, and future...and there's no end to the by-election drama! Read the latest edition of Who's Top, Who's Not.
Flying High: Mhairi Black
The Scottish National Party’s parliamentary contingent has been dropping like flies in recent times. However, Mhairi Black’s announcement that she would not be contesting the next election was packed with grace and decorum, something of a rarity in Westminster.
Black didn’t pull any punches with her earnest explanation for departing as she called Westminster an “outdated, sexist, and toxic working environment”, citing safety concerns, social abuse and working unsociable hours. Her announcement has sparked praise from her fellow peers, with SNP leader Humza Yousaf describing her as “a role model for young people, especially women”. Black has become something of a parliamentary prodigy. Being elected at 20 years old in 2015 made her the youngest MP elected in over 300 years.
Whilst Sunak and Starmer were playing away, Wednesday meant that the deputies got to play at PMQs but the clear winner was Ms Black who brought the house down with a witty remark to Dowden. The Deputy Prime Minister recalled that he and Ms Black joined the Commons at the same time to which she responded: “We did join this place at the same time — and I’m pretty sure we’ll be leaving at the same time.” In light of recent Lib Dem gains in his Hertsmere seat, the House enjoyed a chuckle at Dowden’s expense.
Middle Ranking: Keir Starmer
Polls suggest that Starmer is in pole position to become the next PM and just needs to keep calm and carry on. However, as the past few years have shown, ‘calm’ is not a feature in modern British politics.
Splits in the party have begun to emerge due to concerns about the London Mayor’s plans to expand the ultra-low emission (ULEZ) zones in London, sparking worries about the upcoming by-election in Uxbridge. The recent Conservative council gain in Cambridge will not have eased concerns.
It is perhaps no surprise that Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Danny Beales, has publicly opposed the expansion, stating “it’s community first for me, party second.” He is not alone, with London MPs Siobhain McDonagh, Clive Efford and Jon Cruddas also questioning the timing of the expansion.
Anti-ULEZ feeling is unlikely to be enough to save the Tories in Uxbridge, nor in the mayoral election next year. But Starmer needs to be careful that this issue doesn’t galvanise Tory voters in key outer London seats that he needs to turn either red or orange at the next general election.
Slowly sinking: Chris Pincher
Chris Pincher will have been painfully counting down the days to Thursday 6 July 2023. The Parliamentary Standards Committee released its report on the Tamworth MP, and it is, as one would imagine, a difficult read. The watchdog has recommended that the MP is suspended for eight weeks, finding that Pincher “groped [two people] …and that this was unwanted, inappropriate and unsettling”.
This lengthy suspension means that Pincher’s constituency will be subject to a recall petition and another by-election is now on the horizon. Pincher would still be allowed to stand but, having already announced he plans to step down at the next election anyway, this seems unlikely. Pincher may choose to quit straight away and trigger that election earlier. In any case, it’s not looking good for Rishi.
Sunak is plagued by the ghost of Boris past, present, and future as he faces a bundle of by-elections – all of which are linked in some way to the former PM. After all, ‘Pinchergate’ was the straw that finally broke the back of Boris’ premiership last year, and the three other upcoming by-elections are in seats vacated (or soon to be vacated) by Johnson supporters.
To a certain extent, losses in these by-elections are already priced in so Sunak is ahead in the expectation game. Whilst multiple by-election losses in one day is obviously not good, it is unlikely to destabilise the Sunak government as there is no viable alternative PM this close to the next general election and his majority remains relatively large (if, admittedly, also unstable and unreliable).
The real threat is that when combined with a poorly functioning economy and a lacklustre parliamentary agenda, these by-election losses just add to the narrative of a creaking government slowly grinding to a halt.