Bah superbug!

Deadline debacle

On Thursday last week, the European parliament had outlined a firm deadline of Sunday 20 December for a deal to be agreed with the UK. This decision came after Manfred Weber, head of the centre-right European People’s party, had called for Friday to be the cut-off point. However, like many before it, this deadline has now come and gone raising the prospect of weeks without arrangements from 1 January, even in the event of agreement. To avoid a no-deal Brexit, ministers on the EU council representing the bloc’s capitals may need to “provisionally apply” a deal on 1 January until parliament votes later in the month.

Fisheries continue to remain the most controversial aspect of the negotiations, and on Sunday, Gerard van Balsfoort, the chairman of the European Fisheries Alliance, told Michel Barnier that the latest offer to the UK amounts to selling coastal communities “down the river”. This disagreement stems from the UK’s insistence that the EU needs to get closer to its demand for 60% of the current catch being repatriated. The government also wants to restrict a phase-in period for the new arrangements to three years rather than the six or seven recently proposed by Brussels. However, following negotiations yesterday evening, EU sources have outlined that the British have reduced this demand to 35%, and have also accepted a five-year phase-in period for the new arrangements.

Speaking at the weekend, Matt Hancock, secretary of state for health and social care said, “I’m sure that a deal can be done, but obviously it needs movement on the EU side”. In a sign that negotiations had not collapsed entirely, Barnier tweeted: “In this crucial moment for the negotiations, we continue to work hard with David Frost and his team” … “The EU remains committed to a fair, reciprocal & balanced agreement. We respect the sovereignty of the UK. And we expect the same.”

Fourth tier

On Saturday evening, the prime minister declared that due to an emerging new COVID-19 strain, now officially named VUI-202012/01, the planned relaxation of rules for Christmas has been scrapped for large parts of the country and cut to just Christmas Day for the remaining parts of England, Scotland and Wales.

On Sunday, a new tier four was introduced in London, and many parts of the south-east and east of England. People in the new tier are no longer allowed to form Christmas bubbles and cannot mix indoors with anyone not from their household or support bubble. Additionally, all non-essential retail has closed, along with hairdressers, nail bars, indoor gyms and leisure facilities. The new restrictions are set to last for an initial two weeks, with the first review due on 30 December.

The sharp u-turn by Johnson, who just days before stood by plans to allow cross-nation, cross-tier travel and household mixing for the Christmas period when questioned by Sir Kier Starmer, prompted a rush to London train stations. By 7pm, there were no tickets available online from several London stations including Paddington, King’s Cross and Euston.

Given the last-minute nature of the announcement, the prime minister has been accused of deliberately delaying a decision to place millions of people in London and the south-east under the new tier four measures to avoid scrutiny from angry backbench Tory MPs.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s This Weekend about the prime minister’s last minute u-turn, Sir Charles Walker, the vice-chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, said “I think many colleagues find that extremely egregious. The Christmas period was passed into law by the House of Commons in a vote after a debate” … “The view of most colleagues was for that to be changed, another vote would be required in the House of Commons. So I suspect a decision was delayed until we were safely away back to our constituencies.” Elsewhere, an unnamed Conservative MP said, “This is a failure of leadership for which we may never be forgiven. Many people were blaming previous cock-ups on Dominic Cummings. Now, it is all on the PM”.

The sick man of Europe

While the new version of the virus is thought to be spreading more rapidly than the original version, it is not believed to be more deadly. However, it has already led to many of the UK’s European neighbours and international partners to enact travel bans. More worryingly still, France has also announced a 48-hour ban on passengers and freight entering from the UK. A decision that is expected to lead to miles of lorry queues and travel chaos across Kent. However, the French government has now outlined that it plans to reopen the border once a coordinated EU health protocol was put in place to stem the spread of the virus. Until this point, travel from the UK would remain forbidden until midnight on Tuesday.

In response, Johnson is held an emergency COBRA meeting yesterday to address “the steady flow of freight into and out of the UK”. The EU is doing likewise, to coordinate its response to concerns about a fast-spreading new strain of COVID-19.

Following the tier four announcements on Saturday, the timing could not be worse, and it is expected that supermarkets will again experience bouts of panic buying. In an effort to assuage the public’s fears the transport secretary, Grant Shapps described France’s decision as “surprising”, but said the disruption was not a “specific problem” in regards to food and medicine shortages in the short term. This was seemingly contradicted by a number of supermarket spokespeople however, with a Sainsbury’s spokesperson saying, “If nothing changes, we will start to see gaps over the coming days on lettuce, some salad leaves, cauliflowers, broccoli and citrus fruit – all of which are imported from the continent at this time of year.”

A look ahead

In better years, this would be the part where we look ahead to Christmas and the nice, well-needed period of relaxation that comes with it. However, of course 2020 could not oblige us this one thing! Instead, we have the first taste of what a no-deal may look like, courtesy of France and a rapidly spreading virus sweeping large parts of the country.

The main thing to look out for this week is of course the finalisation of trade negotiations with the EU, however, there also looks to be mounting political pressure on Johnson from members of his own party following his last minute U-turn and the new restrictions.

This caps off a trying year for Johnson and the government. While any government would face enormous pressure in trying to keep the ship steady in the face of COVID-19 and ongoing Brexit negotiations, under his watch the UK has continued to drift off course, and his last minute u-turn, while necessary, has left many, public and politician alike, with a bad taste in their mouth. While there are no quick fixes to any of these problems, there are signs that 2021 may not be as bad as 2020, and with the steady rollout of COVID-19 vaccines at least there is a bit of hope on the horizon. However, for now, attentions turn towards a potential third national lockdown until more people receive the vaccine.