Humza Yousaf’s major failure was not to reset the Scottish government’s priorities when he became First Minister. He inherited the agenda left behind by Nicola Sturgeon, and to use a rugby term, she gave him a hospital pass.
His performance in the thirteen months he held office was dominated, not for a concern for Scotland’s economy or public services, but by his interest in the conflict in Gaza. Indeed, he began to develop his own foreign policy, meeting, without officials, Turkish President Erdogan and others from the region.
He did not apply the same energy to the unresolved issues left by Sturgeon. Ferries, years behind in delivery with costs trebling to £350m; damning scores in the international PISA comparisons in English and Maths with little urgency in attempting to improve matters, and NHS waiting lists continued to rise to mention a few outstanding problems.
And just last week the Scottish Conservatives won a further council by election increasing their vote by 10% while the SNP’s vote dropped by 7%. In total 12 council by elections that the SNP have failed to win during Yousaf’s tenure. And Labour won the Rutherglen by election.
The end came when Yousef decided to terminate the SNP/Green Coalition-the Bute House Agreement-following the publication of the Cass Report. Green co-leader, Patrick Harvie, refused to say whether he accepted the Report’s conclusions on puberty blockers.
Asked five times Harvie refused to say if he agreed with the Report’s findings, instead he claimed it had been "politicised and weaponised" against trans people. While accepting the science that underpins climate change, he refused to accept the science that ended the use of puberty blockers. For many in the SNP that was a step too far, and the resentment that had been growing in the party that the SNP were dancing to the Green tune, ended the agreement.
Resignation became inevitable when the Greens refused to back him in the Vote of No Confidence proposed by Scottish Tory leader, Douglas Ross. And he was never going to reach agreement with Salmond’s Alba party whose price for support was an electoral pact.
And, on reflection, perhaps for the best, as had the vote gone ahead, he would have had to rely on the votes of Sturgeon and Colin Beattie, both still under investigation by Operation Branchform and Michael Mathieson who submitted a “questionable” £13,000 expenses claim, and likely to be suspended from Holyrood. Not a good look.
So where now? Who is likely to put their name forward? More importantly, who wants to own the disaster that the Westminster election will be for the SNP? Kate Forbes, who narrowly lost last time, would offer a fresh face and a chance for the party to start a new beginning, or John Swinney, former Deputy FM and SNP Leader between 2000-2004. He may be hindered by being perceived as another continuity candidate, although he may have a better chance of reaching some sort of looser arrangement with the Greens.
However, the most significant outcome from this most recent imbroglio is the fragmentation of the Independence movement. It has splintered with the SNP, the Greens and Alba unable to talk to each other, far less find a way forward. For the moment, Independence is dead.