The dust has just about settled on last week’s Presidential election. As the Republican Party closes in on a government trifecta, the world is still adjusting to the implications of a second Trump presidential term.
With Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s previous comments about President-elect Trump creating a political headache, the Government took some early steps to prepare itself, with US Ambassador Dame Karen Pierce asked to stay in post for the Trump transition.
Downing Street was keen to highlight the positive phone call between Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer soon after the result became clear, emphasising their shared belief in the enduring strength of the UK-US relationship. Somewhat unusually, Starmer committed to keeping Lammy in his role until the next election, with the Foreign Secretary downplaying his past comments by describing them as “old news” and highlighting areas of "common ground", including a shared belief that Europe needs to do more on defence spending.
Trump’s re-election has brought European defence spending into the spotlight yet again. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones indicated the Government’s ambition to increase defence spending to 2.5 percent of GDP, but refrained from providing a timeline, emphasising the need to complete the strategic defence review before making any firm commitments. Calls from UK Chief of Defence Staff Sir Tony Radakin for increased defence spending will add to the pressure for the Government to act in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.
Linked to this, last week the Prime Minister appointed Jonathan Powell — Tony Blair's former chief of staff and architect of the Good Friday Agreement — as his national security adviser in a move seen as an important step in bolstering the Downing Street operation.
Trump’s return has also raised global concerns about the looming threat of American tariffs. While the UK could be spared, Trump’s notorious unpredictability means this is far from certain, and the Government remains tight-lipped about its potential response so far.
Other economic issues continue to dominate UK politics following October’s Budget. Leading sectors, including retail and hospitality, voiced their opposition to the employers' national insurance rise, warning it could push up inflation, whilst farmers’ vocal criticisms of changes to inheritance tax continues.
The Bank of England’s recent decision to cut interest rates to 4.75 percent also came with a warning, not only would the Budget add to inflation, but any boost to economic growth would also be temporary. Despite these continuing criticisms, the Government remains steadfast in its commitment to its Budget measures. Observers will be keenly watching the Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Mansion House speech on Thursday as she sets out the next stage of the Government's economic approach.
Amid this busy news agenda, the new Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch made her PMQs debut, using Trump’s re-election to challenge the Prime Minister on the Foreign Secretary’s past comments and the prospect of a UK-US trade deal.
Badenoch’s newly formed Shadow Cabinet features many of her leadership supporters, as well as leadership rivals Robert Jenrick and Mel Stride. However, the absence of other Tory ‘big beasts’ from the top table, including former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and fellow leadership hopefuls James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat, is notable. This arguably reflects a new era for the Conservative Party as it attempts to forge a fresh chapter in opposition following the nadir of July’s General Election defeat.
2024 as the year of democracy continues to live up to its name. As if the US Presidential election wasn't enough, Germany is now facing the prospect of early snap elections following the collapse of its three-party ruling coalition last week.
Meanwhile, Taoiseach Simon Harris has called a snap election in Ireland, set for November 29. With the major parties — Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin — already ruling out a coalition, and uncertainty over whether Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would enter government together again, this is certainly one to watch in the weeks ahead.
However, the impact of President Trump remains the one thing on everyone’s mind. The Prime Minister will spend the start of this week abroad, meeting President Emanuel Macron for a bilateral meeting after an Armistice Day service in Paris and flying to Azerbaijan as COP29 kicks off, albeit with very few leading global figures expected to attend.
Both events will be dominated and overshadowed by considerations of the impact of a Trump presidency, particularly on the war in Ukraine and climate change, already giving political observers a glimpse of what to expect over the next four years.
What’s on in Parliament
Monday 11th November
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Work and Pensions
- General debate: Rural affairs
- Adjournment: Improving mental health in farming and agricultural communities
House of Lords
- Oral questions: Junior police cadet schemes
- Oral questions: The regulation of newly qualified young drivers
- Debate: Autumn Budget
Tuesday 12th November
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Energy Security and Net Zero
- Legislation: House of Lords (Hereditary Peers): Remaining stages
- Westminster Hall Debate: Breast cancer in younger women
House of Lords
- Oral questions: Bus fleet carbon emissions reduction
- Legislation: Bank Resolution (Recapitalisation) Bill - third reading
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Debate: House of Lords Reform
Wednesday 13th November
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Women and Equalities
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Ten Minute Rule Motion: Debt Relief (Developing Countries)
- Westminster Hall Debate: Police use of live facial recognition technology
House of Lords
- Oral questions: South Sudan Investigation Committee report on the killing of Christopher Allen, and improving support for British journalists detained or killed overseas
- Legislation: Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Bill - third reading
- Legislation: Football Governance Bill - second reading
Thursday 14th November
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
- Oral questions: Solicitor General
- Adjournment: Impact of aircraft noise on local communities
House of Lords
- Oral questions: Voter registration and participation
- Oral questions: Effectiveness of the BBC World Service
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Debate: Findings and recommendations in the Universities UK report, 'Opportunity, growth and partnership: a blueprint for change'
Friday 15th November
*The House of Commons is not sitting. It will next sit on 18th November.
House of Lords
- Legislation: Support for Infants and Parents etc (Information) Bill - third reading
- Legislation: Imprisonment for Public Protection (Resentencing) Bill - second reading
- Legislation: Home School Education Registration and Support Bill - second reading