International developments continue to dominate the domestic landscape here in the UK. The shifting stance of the U.S. Presidential administration towards the war in Ukraine and the wider position of European defence has left Sir Keir Starmer and other European leaders frantically rearranging domestic finances to increase their own defence budget. As European leaders continue to express concerns over U.S. positioning, the British Prime Minister has remained cautious in his diplomatic approach, positioning his government as a bridge between the United States and the European mainland.
Unfortunately, Starmer’s efforts in this role, which were largely praised by the British media, do not seem to be having the desired effect on the ‘special relationship.’ ‘DOGE’ administrator and owner of ‘X,’ Elon Musk, proclaimed that the U.S. should leave the NATO alliance, stating it “doesn’t make sense” for America to finance Europe’s defence. If the U.S. President were to heed Musk’s advice, it would result in one biggest upheaval to the global security framework and the Western order in decades.
To compound these defence issues, the Trump administration’s decisions to impose expected tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China has also left those across the Atlantic concerned their economies may be next for the tariff ‘hit-list.’ The new Canadian Prime Minister, and former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney declared on his first day that “Canada will win” the trade war; words that will almost certainly not de-escalate the situation. Whilst Starmer will try to find reassurance in Trump’s guarantees that some form of free trade between the countries will happen “very quickly,” the unpredictability of the U.S. administration leaves the UK Government uncertain about whether they will face similar tariffs.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will be looking at this looming economic volatility with real concern. The rise in defence spending, at the expense of international aid, not only faced criticism from Labour colleagues and led to a Ministerial resignation,but also raised key questions about the future of the UK’s budgetary commitments. With possible tariffs on the horizon, the Chancellor will be looking at the ‘Spring Forecast’ with real uncertainty as competing departmental pressures meet international economic battle lines.
One area that has hit the headlines over the weekend is the projected rise of Britain’s welfare spending, increasing by over 25% to £378 billion by 2030. Driven by rising pension payments and health-related benefits, the government will be looking to overhaul the health and disability benefits system to address the inefficiencies exacerbated by an ageing population. This will likely bring further difficult decisions to the Treasury, who are still facing criticism and protests for major decisions on VAT for independent schools and inheritance taxes within the agricultural industry.
A reshaping of the civil service may provide some support in Reeve’s financial woes, with the Prime Minister announcing a shift to a “delivery-focused governance” that prioritises performance-based evaluations and streamlining departments to cut costs. Unions have raised concerns about potential job cuts and the politicisation of the impartial machine of government. Despite this, there is broad consensus from MPs this is long overdue.
Finally, it seems like civil war has broken out within Reform UK, with Rupert Lowe MP accusing leader Nigel Farage MP of leading a “vindictive witch-hunt” following his suspension from the party amid allegations of bullying and aggressive behaviour, which he stringently denies. Lowe has been referred to the police and faces life outside of Reform UK as an independent MP. This may weaken the party’s political influence ahead of the local elections in May, where Reform UK are projected to perform strongly. While It is too early to determine if this could alter the balance of power on the right, it will certainly slow momentum and suggests that the ‘new kid on the block’ might not be the political wave many on the right had hoped for.
What’s On in Parliament
Monday 10th March
House of Commons
- Oral Questions: Education
- Legislation: Crime and Policing Bill - Second Reading
- Westminster Hall debate: e-petition relating to suspending legal and illegal migration
House of Lords
- Oral Questions: UK Poverty 2025 report published by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation
- Oral Questions: People who have not met the requirements for the apprenticeship system
- Legislation: House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill – committee stage (day 2)
Tuesday 11th March
House of Commons
- Oral Questions: Justice
- Legislation: Employment Rights Bill – Remaining Stages
- Westminster Hall debate: Governance of English Rugby Union
House of Lords
- Oral Questions: Plans to assess the ‘scope 3 emissions’ of licensed oil and gas fields, and what impact they have on their emission reduction targets
- Legislation: Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Bill - third reading
- Legislation: Football Governance Bill – report stage (day 1)
Wednesday 12th March
House of Commons
- Oral Questions: Wales
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Westminster Hall debate: The use of stop and search
- Westminster Hall debate: Government support for rural communities
House of Lords
- Oral Questions: Similar treatment for equivalent UK businesses to EU proposals to exempt 80 per cent of eligible EU companies from new carbon border taxes
- Legislation: House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill – committee stage (day 3)
Thursday 13th March
House of Commons
- Oral Questions: Business and Trade
- Backbench Business: Future of farming
- Backbench Business: Mental health support in educational settings
- Westminster Hall debate: Educational opportunities for young carers
House of Lords
- Oral Questions: Implementing an updated public-private partnership model to attract capital investment and to open share ownership to more people
- Oral Questions: Results of imposing value added tax on independent school fees on I January
- Debate: United Kingdom’s Global Position
Friday 14th March
House of Commons
- Private Members’ Bills
House of Lords
- Legislation: Universal Credit (Standard Allowance Entitlement of Care Leavers) Bill - third reading
Consultations
- Reforms to inheritance tax reliefs – closes 23rd April
- Building the North Sea’s energy future – closes 30th April
- Oversight and regulation of private prosecutors in the criminal justice system – closes 8th May
Statistics
- Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators – published 6th March
- MOD trade, industry and contracts: 2024 – published 6th March
- Cold Weather Payment estimates: 2024 to 2025 - published 5th March
- Health trends in England – published 4th March