The small Lanarkshire town of Hamilton holds a special place in nationalist hearts; so much so that it has been written into SNP folklore. In 1967, Winnie Ewing won a stunning victory over Scottish labour which marked the first real electoral breakthrough for the then fledgling SNP. Rarely does an SNP conference pass without reference to this event; in many ways, Hamilton changed the trajectory of Scottish politics for the best part of half a century. The recent history of Scottish politics can be charted through a series of by-elections. In 1988, Jim Sillars won the Labour heartland seat of Govan, penetrating the seemingly impregnable Red Clydeside upon which Labour’s electoral success depended. In 2008, Labour lost the Glasgow East by-election to the SNP, an event from which Gordon Brown never really recovered. These by-elections, although decades apart, and fought in very different contexts, painted a picture of a complex electorate, restless with the hegemonic party of the day. Last night’s by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West is no different, although it is fair to say this is not an event which will be fondly remembered by the nationalist campaigners of today. 56 years after Winnie Ewing’s victory, Hamilton once again takes centre stage and, although nothing is certain, the small town could once again shape what is to come.
In the end, it wasn’t even close. Labour won with a whopping 17,845 votes, more than double that of the SNP. The 20% swing exceeded even the most optimistic of Labour campaigner, and, should this be replicated in a uniform fashion at the general election, Scottish Labour would win 42 seats to the SNP’s six. This would represent a total reversal of SNP fortunes and would see the party with the same number of miserly seats that the party held prior to the 2014 referendum. This is a big moment and, at the very least, it marks the return of competitive electoral politics north of the border. The usual caveats apply, however - by-elections allow the electorate to kick the government of the day and this contest was brought about by scandal surrounding the incumbent. That said, this will be of little comfort to the SNP; the scale of Labour’s victory has shaken a party which has become so accustomed to winning. Already, there is significant pressure on Humza Yousaf with SNP MSPs this afternoon briefing lobby journalists about their lack of faith in his leadership.
The biggest winner is of course Keir Starmer. Although there were unique Scottish elements at play in Rutherglen and Hamilton - note the near total collapse of the Unionist Tory vote in favour of Labour – last night’s result will give real hope to the UK leadership that the party can compete and win in Scotland. Although Starmer enjoys a commanding poll lead over the Conservatives, it is often forgotten that he needs to win 80 seats to stand still. When Starmer assumed the UK Labour leadership, the party trailed the SNP in Scotland by 32 points. Only a year ago, it would have been inconceivable that Labour could sweep aside the SNP in a former heartland seat in such commanding fashion. Last night’s result signifies a quiet realignment in Scottish politics; as the issue of the constitution recedes in the minds of voters, the SNP struggles for relevance in a straight Labour/Tory shoot-out for Downing Street. Scottish Labour’s Leader Anas Sarwar has long said that the road to Downing Street runs through Scotland, and that very much rings true today. Winning a swathe of SNP seats north of the border will go a long way to installing Starmer in Downing Street.
Such was the nature of Labour’s win last night, party strategists in Scotland are also beginning to think the unthinkable - that the party could win the next Holyrood election. Although the next Scottish election is not until 2026, the SNP finds itself as the centre of a perfect storm and Labour are proving to be the beneficiaries. SNP insiders acknowledge and worry about a general sense of malaise and tiredness surrounding the party. A hugely damaging police investigation into party finances is compounded by a lack of direction and perceived policy failure; the ferry scandal, for example, simply will not go away and damages the SNP further with every passing day. It’s worth noting that owing to Holyrood’s hybrid voting system, Labour does not need to win a majority of seats for Anas Sarwar to become First Minister; indeed, Labour do not even need to be the biggest party – Sarwar could be elected FM on the votes of Conservative and Liberal Democrat MSPs wanting rid of a pro-independence government. That is clearly a long way off and, while important, last night was only one by-election in one part of the country. As with 1967, however, Hamilton may yet be remembered in years to come for providing a second, trajectory-setting, result. Only time will tell.
by Kevin O'Donnell, Associate Director